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Selasa, 08 Februari 2011

Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ): De-Leverage - CLSA Indo

Nick Cashmore is reiterating his conviction BUY call on BUMI. Their announcement to repay US$300mn of CB and the first tranche (US$600mn out of US$1.9bn in total) of expensive CIC debt validates our debt deleveraging thesis.

One of our strongest conviction stocks, strong FCF generation will aggressively reduce financial risk, benefitting shareholders.

Key points from the report:
Announced repayment of US$300m of CB and US$600m of CIC loan (total CIC loan is US$1.9bn; at 18% p.a.)
Aiming to reduce debt by up to US$1bn in 2011; repay all by 2013
Most leveraged producer to higher coal price (coal price increase 10% = earnings increase 30%)
Highest proportion of spot sales exposure at 25%.
Strong future coal demand from India; India to be the largest coal importer in future (Indian national Power Co. signed 100GW of PPAs, 4x of Indo's power capacity, import to grow 42% to 17mt)
Valuation: relatively cheap valuation at 9.2x FY2011CL earnings; five-year avg. P/E is 15.3x earnings.
Target price (Rp4,023) implies 33% upside. BUY
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 10.14

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