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Senin, 28 Maret 2011

Indonesia CPO, Time for a raise by Di Shui - CLSA

Time for a raise? We have upgraded our CPO price assumption 12% to Rm3,400/ton for FY11 and beyond. But apparently downgraded all the Indo plays to underperform with the exception of Gozco. A bit confusing here. The reason is previous valuation was based on just PE but new target prices were derived from a blend of 10 year DCF and P/E fair derived values. Di feels that blended is a better method as it captures future revenue streams for growth phase plantations. Top picks: GZCO IJ and GGR SP

Key points from report:
CPO Prices revised: [CL11: US$1,000 à US$1,141/ton] [CL12: US$950 àUS$1,181/ton]
Indonesia ASP at 17.5% discount to Malaysia spot: [ CL11: Rp8,142/kg ] [ CL12: Rp8035/kg ]
View is Indonesia will grow production by 1.5m tons as Indo producers are poised for yield recovery
Plantations with significant mature plantings will capitalize on high CPO spot rates in near term
Change in methodology to blend of 10yr DCF and forward PE
Top pick for Indo CPO exposure is GZCO IJ
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 10.51

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