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Senin, 22 Agustus 2011

Bumi Resources - 2Q preliminary operating data; strong ASP - Deutsche Bank

This is based on Bumi Plc's 1H11 results published on August 17, 2011.
BUMI full result is expected to be reported at the end of August 2011.

2Q11 coal mined up by 13.6%QoQ; largely on-track
Volume of coal mined in 1H11 reached 29.9 mT (-2.3% YoY, 45% of DB FY of 66mT), of which 14 mT was mined in Q1 and 15.9 mT (+13.6% QoQ) was in Q2. In order to reach DB FY11, company needs to reach quarterly vol mined in 2H of 18 mT (13% higher than 2Q than realization), appears achiavable given improved weather conditions.

Strong ASP, balancing higher cost
2Q11 ASP reached record high of $94.6/t (+7.87% QoQ). 1H11 ASP reached US$91/t (+36%YoY), already exceeded DB FY11 of $90.5/t. ASP in 2H11 need to only average at $89.8/t in order to meet the FY forecast. Production cost of sales up +23% YoY to $44.7/t in 1H11, higher compared to 1Q11's 6.3% YoY increase, as implied stripping ratio for 2Q11 rose to 12.1x from 11.9x in 1Q11.

Overall, these preliminary operating data appears largely in-line with expectations, though we remain cautious on its non-operating items, given potential auditing ahead of future consolidation into Bumi PLC. The stock also currently trades at 8.3x 2012F PE, a premium to the sector average of 7.3x. Maintain Hold.

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