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Selasa, 15 Maret 2011

Re-iterating BUY, BUMI, thermal tail winds - CLSA Indo

Nick Cashmore re-iterates his BUY call on BUMI for an exposure to thermal coal super cycle. Cheapest coal play + deleveraging.

Post the 25% Vallar purchase, a potential step-up agreement could see Vallar lifting that stake to 51%. More currently, the 7% Newmont divestment could go to BRMS again as SOEs have indicated no interest.

BUMI is an aggressive deleveraging story. Vallar’s access to financing + BUMI’s penchant for M&A could be a powerful combination. The group has also indicated its desire to repay the first tranche of expensive US$600mn in CIC debt this August.

The stock is a conviction BUY.

Key points from report:
Asia’s thermal coal market has tightened overnight. Japan is the largest importer of thermal coal; Indonesia is the largest exporter
BUMI is the most sensitive to higher spot prices. 10% coal price increase will lift earnings by 30%
Vallar now owns 25% of BUMI, and is in talks to raise it to 51%
Aggressive deleveraging, redeemed US$300m in convertible bonds and is thinking of redeeming first tranche of CIC debt (US$600m)
Stock is cheap, trading at 1 stdev below 5-yr average
Valuation: if we strip out BUMI’s US$1.8bn stake in BRMS, the group’s residual market cap implies 10x 11consensus PER and 8x 11 CLSA PER. Big discount to peer valuation at 14x 11PER. Governance discount is overdone.
TP 4,000 gives 30% upside. BUY
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 11.38

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