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Selasa, 15 Maret 2011

Jasa Marga (JSMR) taking over stalled toll road projects, more upside not factored in by Sarina Lesmina - CLSA Indo

Government is moving ahead with appointing new investors for stalled toll road projects. Since July 2010, government had evaluated 24 projects and had recently stated that 13 of the projects can proceed, while the remaining 11 will potentially have the concessions revoked.

Seizing the opportunity, Jasa Marga had officially acquired 52% of 13.61km of the Gempol-Pandaan toll road, one of the stalled projects. It is reported that Jasa Marga also considers to acquire two more concessions which are Mojokerto-Kertosono (40.5km) and mid toll of Surabaya (13.7km). These two concessions currently belong to investors who until now have not started developing the toll roads.

We believe Jasa Marga is able to financially support the new projects. Last time we calculated that the company can take on another 190km of new expansion on top of their current 7 projects, using 70:30 debt:equity scheme.

No short term earnings impact from the newly acquired projects, given the time to develop it. However, on a DCF basis, this translates into higher value for the company.

Jasa Marga is an inflation-hedge play. Toll tariffs is expected to increase by 10-12% in September for 11 of its 13 toll roads. The tariff adjustment every two years based on trailing inflation has been done consistently by government since the industry is deregulated in 2005.

Other catalyst: the Land clearing bill, hopefully to be passed by end of this year.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 11.37

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