Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Rabu, 16 Maret 2011

Medco Energy - Ready for the big league (MEDC-BUY-IDR2,925-TP:IDR4,300) - Bahana Sekuritas

Doubling oil & gas production by 2016; DCF-based TP: IDR4,300/ sh
Medco Energy (MEDC) is cementing its position as the 2nd largest publicly listed oil play in Southeast Asia and 5th largest in Asia Pacific (exhibit 36) by investing some USD1.7b in 2011-2016 capex on 6 wide ranging new projects (exhibit 15-18) from oil & gas to LNG and power. Oil projects are Libyan-based with 153 MMBOE reserves and Rimau with 46 MMBOE while gas projects are Block A with 20.8 MMBOE and Senoro Toili with 45.2 MMBOE. These projects are expected to commence production in 2013-2015, increasing 1P reserves by 75% while daily production by 41% to 75 MBOED by 2014, before doubling to 108 MBOED by 2016, when the fields reach full capacity. We highlight that 57% of MEDC’s oil reserves are currently in Rimau while 73% of its gas reserves are at Senoro Toili. By 2014, MEDC’s largest oil reserves would be in Libya (61%), followed by Rimau (29%) while gas reserves will persist to be the largest in Senoro Toili (exhibit 25-28). For oil price, we use USD83-95-103-111-119/bbl price over 2010F-2014F and USD3.7-3.7-3.8-3.9-4.0/mmbtu for gas. We arrive at DCF equity value of IDR5,200/ share with WACC of 6.1%, but we arrive at IDR4,300/ share target price (TP) excluding the Libyan assets. We believe that 9.7% share price underperformance ytd will improve as investors better understand MEDC’s future projects. With 47% upside, we initiate coverage on MEDC with a BUY.

One of the lowest cost producers in Asia Pacific
MEDC, an upstream oil and gas exploration company with 7 producing blocks in Indonesia (98% of oil & gas revenues) and 8 blocks internationally, is one of the lowest cost producers in Asia Pacific at USD8.2/BOE (barrels of oil equivalence). This is due to the company’s on shore oil & gas fields. MEDC currently has five sources of revenues: oil (49% of total revenue and 74% of gross profit), gas (15% of sales; 5% of GP), other contracts (12% of sales; 5% of GP), power (14% of sales; 15% of GP) and chemicals and other products (11% of sales; 1% of GP). MEDC’s revenue sharing agreements are production sharing contracts with the government (exhibit 7) for assets outside of the US, while royalty is used for US-based assets. MEDC has about 90 MMBOE 1P oil reserves while 146 MMBOE of gas reserves (38%:62%) bringing total 1P reserves to 235 MMBOE (277 MMBOE of 2P reserve) with annual production of 11.2 MMBOE for oil and 9.5 MMBOE for gas (54%:46%), translating to reserve life of 8 and 15 years respectively.

USD260m gain in 2010 on the Senoro Toili sale; More sales in 2012
In February 2011, MEDC completed its 20% stake sale of Senoro Toili for USD260m, bringing down its stake to 30%. Note that MEDC had paid USD1m for a 50% stake, suggesting a purchase price of only USD0.4m for the 20%, excluding capex, however. This implies higher book value and less extra-ordinary gain, which MEDC plans to use for capex going forward (i.e. no special dividends). With tax and amortization, we assume USD190m net gain, bringing 2010 net income to USD116m, 179% above consensus. There is upside to our 2012 figure as MEDC plans to have more assets sales in 2012.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 05.37

Tidak ada komentar:

Posting Komentar

Langganan: Posting Komentar (Atom)