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Jumat, 01 Juli 2011

Thailand's election - implications for Indonesia, from Nick Cashmore - CLSA

Thailand is holding important elections this weekend and they will have implications for Indonesia as both parties are talking populist policies.

If the democrats win they have promised to lift the minimum wage by 25% over two years. Puea Thai, which backs Thaksin, has promised to lift minimum wages by 40%.

Either way, minimum wages will rise aggressively over the next two years. This will support consumption domestically but unless supported by higher productivity will also shift investment into more competitive economies.

Indonesia is likely to benefit from any shift in investment into alternative markets. We spoke this morning about the rise in industrial activity in Cikarang area in West Java and the papers this morning carried stories of investment by the Chinese and Koreans.

Private investment now stands at 30% of GDP, a 15-year high, but lags Indian and Chinese peers. We expect investment will continue to rise towards 33% of GDP as firms ramp up on capacity building coupled with modest public sector investment.

The most direct beneficiaries of greater investment will be the cement players and we have positive recs on all three with Indocement (INTP IJ) our preferred holding.

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