Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Rabu, 29 Juni 2011

Gudang Garam - Pricing power may lead to higher dividends; raising TP - Deutsche

Pricing power and dividend potential being underappreciated
Gudang Garam has underperformed the JCI by 23% since September, even as it has proven its pricing power repeatedly, raising prices 19 times in the past 24 months by a total of 24%. In our view, this demonstration of pricing power warrants a further re-rating of the stock. We also believe there is room to increase the dividend payout ratio from the current 36% to 100% due to its strong free cash flow generation. We raise our target price to Rp62,000 (from Rp43,500), making GGRM our top pick in the Indonesia consumer space. Buy.

Positive excise changes on the horizon and superior operating environment
On top of the ongoing excise unification, the government plans to close a loophole in the excise system that allows lower excise for subsidiaries, which could affect 10-25% of industry volume. GGRM is the only major cigarette company without a production subsidiary. In addition, Indonesia is one of the few places in the world where volumes are still growing. The top 10% income bracket smokes c. 5x more (and 36% pricier) cigarettes than the bottom 10%, suggesting room for growth as GDP/capita rises. The price of a pack of Marlboro is 40% cheaper than in India even though income per capita is 2.5x more (i.e. room for price increases).

Low foreign ownership on overblown corporate governance concerns
In our view, the primary reason why foreigners have sold c. US$130m of GGRM shares since September is on unfounded concerns on Surya Air, which is now primarily for internal use, and KDM, the cigarette company being run by the son of the CEO, which does not compete directly with GGRM.

Trading at 24% discount to regional peers; raising target to Rp62,000
We rollover our DCF valuation to 2011 with a new target price of Rp62,000 (32% upside potential) implying 19.1x PE FY12F, in-line with valuations during its 1994- 98 growth phase. Despite minimal earnings revisions, our increase in TP is primarily due to rollover to 2011 and WACC decrease to 12.3% (from 13.4%). Risks: excise policy and regulation.

Tidak ada komentar:

Posting Komentar