Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Rabu, 29 Juni 2011

Mitra Adiperkasa (Initiating coverage with Outperform) - Time to go shopping - MACQUARIE

We initiate coverage of MAPI with an Outperform recommendation and Rp5,000 valuation/price target (representing 24.0x FY11E PER and 17.4x FY12E PER). We believe MAPI provides investors with compelling leverage to Indonesia's structural consumption/emerging middle class growth thematic, at a price we believe remains attractive (18.9x FY11E PER). With average daily trading liquidity now at US$1.0m (with a US$314m free-float market cap), the stock is also becoming increasingly investable for medium-sized institutions.

Leverage to Indonesia's emerging middle class
MAPI is an emerging retailer and distributor of branded consumer products, operating a total of 65 different retail concepts, many of which are licensed from leading international brand owners (including Sogo, Starbucks, Reebok, and Zara). The company's stores are mostly located in Indonesia's upmarket malls, where MAPI has leases over an average of c30% of these malls' total lettable area – a footprint we believe gives the company a powerful strategic advantage.
We believe the growth outlook for the business remains bright. Since FY95A, MAPI has grown its store base at a 23% CAGR from 40 to 854 outlets (as at FY10A), and a further 200–300 store openings (23–35%) are planned for FY11E (including in three new cities in Sulawesi, Kalimantan, and Papua). Meanwhile, sales growth has averaged 18.6% over the past five years, and is targeted at 20–25% pa moving forward. We highlight that MAPI's sales per capita outside of Jakarta are still less than US$1 (compared to US$15–40 in Jakarta), illustrating the extent of the leverage MAPI has to a steady broadening in Indonesian middle class (currently estimated at only 30m people, or one eighth of Indonesia's total).

Margins look set to rise; consensus looks too light
In addition to the robust top-line growth outlook, we believe MAPI is well placed to deliver EBIT margin expansion over the medium term from current relatively-low levels of 9.5% in FY10A (we are forecasting a 70bp improvement in FY11E). As a result, our FY11E EPS estimates are 14.5% above consensus (which is factoring in flat margins in FY11E), which we believe is too conservative. We also see scope for further margin improvement moving beyond FY11E.
Key to this trend will be the likely slowdown in the addition of new start-up brands to MAPI's portfolio, which typically have a depressing impact on short term profitability (with new brands often taking up to three years to break even). In addition, the recent discontinuance of the unprofitable Harvey Nichols brand (which single-handedly reduced FY10A EBIT margins by c85bp) will materially boost FY11E YoY margins. Finally, we also expect MAPI's effective tax rate to decline from an estimated c28% in FY11E towards c23% over the medium term.

Principal risk needs to be borne in mind
We see the largest risk to MAPI as being a loss of principal relationships over time – especially if Indonesia were to eventually lift the regulation prohibiting foreigners from operating specialty stores (this excludes department stores, which represent c20% of FY11E earnings). However, we believe this risk is heavily mitigated by MAPI's powerful leasehold property position; the large switching costs of relationship termination; and MAPI's brand diversification. MAPI has now also developed 12 of its own proprietary retail concepts.

Tidak ada komentar:

Poskan Komentar