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Jumat, 01 April 2011

Full Year 2010 Earnings Result Dashboard (update 1) - UBS

Adaro Energy (ADRO Neutral 2,800): Below expectations result
Net profit = Rp2.2 tn (-49% YoY, -6% QoQ); 10% and 16% below UBS and consensus expectations. Revenue = Rp24.7 tn (-8% YoY, +9% QoQ); 9% lower than UBS forecast, but in-line with consensus. EBIT = Rp6.8 tn (-28% YoY, +1% QoQ); in-line with UBS and consensus forecast. EBIT and net margin stood at 27% (-800bps YoY, -200 QoQ) and 9% (-700bps YoY, -100bps QoQ).

Sales comment: Weak result largely due to cost pressures (margin contractions). This should weigh on the already weakening sentiment on ADRO share in the market. We are buyers on further weakness from current levels.

Indo Tambangraya (ITMG Neutral PT 57,000): Coal mine acquisitions just speculation?
ITMG is reportedly looking to acquire three coal mines, producing one million ton of high calorie coal per annum. These mines are reported to be located in Kalimantan, and negotiations on the acquisitions are on-going. In 2011, ITMG is looking to produce 25 mn tons of coal (+14% YoY).

Sales comment: Analyst Andreas Bokkenheuser checked the acquisition news with ITMG, which was denied by the management. Andreas is neutral on the coal sector at the moment, due to the short-term weakness on supply/demand conditions.

Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ): Results ahead of expectations
The result was ahead of expectations.
Net profit = Rp9.22 tn (+29% YoY, +21% QoQ); 9% and 5% ahead of UBS and consensus expectations.
NIM = 5.28%; vs 5.04% last year.
Net NPL = 0.62%; vs 0.42% last year.
Loan growth stood at 24%; vs industry at 23%.
Deposit growth stood at 13%.

Sales comment: Good set of results, which should add to the positive buying sentiment on BMRI stock. Chart is looking toppish however.

Bank Central Asia (BBCA Sell PT 5,822): Results inline
BBCA 2010 net profit = Rp8.48 tn (+25% YoY, +11% QoQ); in-line with UBS and consensus forecast. In 2010, BBCA’s: 1) NIM was stable at 5.3%; 2) LDR was higher at 55%; and 3) NPL was lower at 0.6%. BBCA also posted strong loan growth of 25% in 2010 – vs industry at 22% – which is driven by the consumer sector. Lastly, BBCA’s deposit grew 13% in 2010, led by CASA account – which represents 76% of total deposit.

Sales comment: Good result. Slightly above UBS and consensus of Rp8.1 tn and Rp8.3 tn, not much different to the unaudited result announced in BI website last week. BBCA shares are near the overbought region and we see a turnaround in buying sentiment on the stock. We recommend investors to take profit on BBCA shares.

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI BUY PT 6,400): Very strong result
The result was well ahead of expectations.
Net profit = Rp11.5 tn (+57% YoY, +106% QoQ); 17% and 25% ahead of UBS and consensus expectations.
NIM = 10.8%; vs 9.1% last year.
Gross NPL = 2.78%; vs 3.5% last year.
Loan and deposit growth stood at 20% and 29% respectively.

Sales comment: Very strong 2010 result. Interest income, fees, expenses and provisioning are ahead of our expectations, and so is the bottom line. Positive sentiment on BBRI should accelerate in the market. We are a buyer.

Bank Tabungan Nasional (BBTN Not Covered): Result above expectations
Net profit = Rp916 tn (+87% YoY, +54% QoQ); 16% and 13% ahead of UBS and consensus expectations. BBTN guided for 2011 net profit of Rp1.15 tn; vs Rp962 bn UBSe.

Sales comment: Great result, good guidance. Looks like a great way to play the property market, given BBTN’s role as a is a leading mortgage lender.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 05.31

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