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Jumat, 01 April 2011

Bank Mandiri (BMBRI IJ) earnings & TP upgrade - CLSA

Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ), Moving on up. Strong FY10 operating results for BMRI sees Bret Ginesky revising his 11CL/12CL EPS estimates upwards by 6% and 16% respectively. This is off the back of PPOP increasing 30% YoY driven by solid fee income growth (+43%) and NIM expansion to 5.39% (+20bps).

Bret argues that there are three positive catalysts driving 2011 results: (1) Asset sensitive balance sheet will benefit from a rising rate environment; (2) "haircut" provision for accepting losses on written off loans is moving forward (3) Bank is scheduled to report a recovery of Rp1.3tn from Garuda in 1Q11.

Bret raises his Target Price to Rp9,000 from 6,883 earlier, indicating a 32% upside. BUY.

Key points from report:
· Strong FY10 results: Net Profit of Rp9.2tn (+29%) is 1% ahead of 10CL and 5% above consensus
· Pre Provision Operating Profit (PPOP) expansion of 30% YoY driven by 43% fee income growth and NIM expansion of 20bps to 5.39%
· Credit quality continues improving with NPL declining to 2.4% from 2.8%, while LDR expanded to 68%, a 6% increase
· Key catalysts for 2011: Asset sensitive B/S to benefit from rising interest rate, "haircut" provision on writing off loans is moving forward, bank scheduled to report a recovery of Rp1.3tn from Garuda in 1Q11
· Raising 11CL/12CL CL EPS estimates by 6% and 16% on premise of continued NIM expansion, rising rates, rising LDR, solid fee income growth and credit quality improvement
· Solid operating results justify premium valuation to Indo peers (x. BCA) TP raised to Rp9,000, upside of 32%. BUY

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