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Senin, 18 April 2011

Astra Agro Lestari: Buy; Rp22,800; TP Rp30,650; AALI IJ Strong 1Q11 production - DBS Vickers

Astra Agro Lestari (AALI) reported 1.01m MT of FFB production (+20.6% y-o-y) and 275.099 MT of CPO (+25.7% y-o-y). Geographically, production from the group's Kalimantan and Sumatra estates had improved by 34.3% and 18.3% y-o-y, respectively during the quarter. As of end of 1Q11, the group also reported that its mature area stood at c.220k ha.

In 1Q10, AALI produced 841,893 MT and 218,791 MT of FFB and CPO, representing 19.8% and 19.6% of full year contributions, respectively. Assuming the sustainable production rates for the rest of the year, AALI should produce 5.08m MT of FFB and 1.40 MT of CPO - higher than our FY11F estimates of 4.52m MT of FFB and 1.18m MT of CPO. While we believe 1Q10 production figures were below normal due to biological tree stress, the volumes did indicate that AALI should report better-than-expected earnings for the quarter. We are currently reviewing our forecasts; but maintain our Buy rating and TP of Rp30650.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 16.33

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