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Kamis, 14 Februari 2013

KZ - INDY Downgrade to Sell

    INDY’s overhead costs are ballooning. Overhead is 21% of revenue and has grown 45% CAGR from 2010 to 2012. The main driver is salary which takes up nearly 33% of all overhead cost.
·         While we view recent bond issuance as positive (lowering overall borrowing cost from 8.5% to 6.6%), the main overhang is bloated costs, not interest expense
·         As a result of this high overhead cost, earnings are sensitive to changes in revenue. Lowering INDY’s revenue by 6% (from PTRO and MBSS), INDY’s earnings plunged by 40% in 13CL to $42m.
·         As an aside, we don’t think that MTU, INDY’s recent acquisition, may not be able to start before 2015 due to legal concerns.
·         We prefer MBSS and PTRO because of their earnings visibility and cheap valuation. MBSS (PE 4.8x 13CL) and PTRO (PE 4.6x 13CL)
·         As a result we downgrade INDY to Sell from O-PF.  Our sum of the parts valuation results in a change in target price to Rp1,360 per share from Rp1,580 per share
me @ LOTS Trading Club (LTC)

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