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Rabu, 13 Februari 2013

Bank Rakyat Indonesia ( Persero ) (BBRI.JK)

Bank Rakyat Indonesia ( Persero ) (BBRI.JK)
Q4 CY12 Result Preview: Key Will Be Micro Business Trend

Earnings to depend on credit and opex costs —

With strong 11M net profit of Rp16.4trn reported on BI’s website, CY12 profit is likely to exceed Citi’s forecast of Rp16.7trn (consensus is Rp17trn). The share price, in our opinion, will be driven more by trends in the Micro business (both loan growth as well as yields). Analyst meeting is scheduled for Jan 31, 2013 evening (Thursday) and financial statements will be published in Friday’s newspapers.

Citi Q4 PPOP of Rp4.6trn (-16% qoq) and NP of Rp3.5trn (-21% qoq) —

Our forecasts are based on NIM contraction, a seasonal jump in opex and higher credit costs. NIM contraction is due to lower loan yields (20bps) and higher proportion of low yield assets due to year end deposit flow. Our 12M opex growth is estimated at
17% and 12M credit cost at 0.35% (net of cash recovery of Rp2trn). Upside surprises could come from higher trading, other operating and non-operating
income (details in Fig. 1)

Micro loan trends —

Micro loan disbursements have picked up from March 2012,
with net increases of Rp4.8trn in Q2 and Rp4.5trn in Q3. Mgmt indication of 18% growth (end 2012) equates to c~Rp5.3trn disbursement in Q4. The Q4 run rate would translate into 20% growth in 2013F.

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