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Selasa, 24 Mei 2011

Markets / Cement Sector / Mining Sector / BMRI / Jaya Agra / Picture of the Day (update2) - Credit Suisse

2) Indonesia Cement Sector: Awaiting the Land Reform Bill
Sales commentary: While the momentum to pass the land reform bill is positive, we should not, unfortunately, rule out the possibility of a delay in the timely passing of the bill in 2H11. Fortunately, we can still expect Indonesia 2011 cement consumption volume growth at 6.0-6.5% (in-line with targeted GDP growth this year) as the base-case, which is decent. At the company level, we agree with Ella to go long on Semen Gresik (SMGR, O, PT Rp11,000), as we reckon SMGR’s 27% (5.0 mn tpa) capacity expansion (82% completed in mid-May 2011) is yet fully reflected on the stock price.

· The Finance Ministry is confident that the land reform bill will be passed in 2H11.
· If passed, the long awaited bill is expected to accelerate land clearing process, by clearly delineating the procedure to resolve any problems pertaining to the process – especially on the value of the land and compensation to land owners.
· Ella Nusantoro believes that the timely passing of the bill would be positive for the cement sector amid robust execution in infrastructure investments starting in 2012.
· Ella maintains her Overweight rating on the sector, with SMGR as the sector’s top pick.

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