Astra Int’l (ASII Under Review): Toyota market share target, Honda price increase
Toyota Astra Motor is targeting to sell 288k cars in 2011, which represent 3% YoY growth and targeted market share of 36%. Meanwhile, Astra Honda Motor estimates 10-15% increase in motorcycles’ on-the-road price in February-March 2011 – due to higher auto registration tax.
Sales comment: ASII is still using 800k unit cars sales for 2011 as the official target for the industry.
Semen Gresik (SMGR Buy PT 10,900): 2.5% cement production growth target
SMGR is only targeting to produce 20.5 mn tons of cement this year vs 2010 target of 20 mn tons. With relatively flat production, SMGR is estimating contracting market share to 43% in 2011 vs 44% in 2010. SMGR stated that its new cement plants, in East Java and South Sulawesi, would only be operational at the end of 2011.
Sales comment: ASII has entered the oversold region with the recent sell-off. While the removal of subsidized fuel in March is a negative catalyst for ASII, there are short-term opportunities from the recent correction.
United Tractors (UNTR Sell PT 23,100): 2010 machinery sales above target
UNTR’s 2010 Komatsu machinery sales are projected to beat company’s internal target of 5,400 units. Meanwhile, the performance of Pama Persada, a mining contracting unit of UNTR, is projected to remain stable in December 2010.
Sales comment: Analyst Felicia Tandiyono reckons UNTR 2010 machinery sales would be in-line with her forecast of 5,472 units..
Bank Jabar (BJBR Not Rated): 34% growth in 2010 EBT
Investor Daily reported that BJBR is estimating 2010 EBT of Rp1.32 tn (US$147 mn), a good 34% YoY increase. Meanwhile, BJBR is issuing Rp2.0 tn bond (US$222 mn) on Januar 27-28 2011 to fund BJBR’s loan growth. Coupon rate on the bond is not yet disclosed.
Sales comment: In addition to the strong EBT growth in 2010, BJBR asset is estimated to grow at 25%. BJBR management seems upbeat with the bank’s performance outlook in 2011.
BW Plantation (BWPT Not Rated): 10% CPO production growth in 2011
BWPT recorded 8% CPO production growth in 2010 to 3975,528 tons. For 2011, BWPT targets 10% production growth, which will be supported by both maturing estate (current average age is only 9.8 years) and expanding mature area (+23% to 24,470 ha). In terms of price, BWPT is projecting its CPO sale price to at least stable at Rp8.0 million (US$881) per ton.
Sales comment: On the sales desk, we like BWPT on its sound potential to grow its earnings – young trees, land bank expansion and clean corporate governance.
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