Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Kamis, 13 Januari 2011

JP Morgan Indo : Discount shopping time in Indonesia stock market

* Spain stock market +5.4% overnight despite an upcoming €4bn debt auction today. This week suppose to be the most difficult week for Eurozone debt auction activity, with total issue approacing €30bn. Looking forward, the auction calendar looks very light until end-Feb (report attached: Euro area government issuance 2011 update, Gianluca Salford). Today’s risk rally may have leg.

* Mining is Indonesia’s biggest market cap by sector (US$78bn). Mining, gas utilities, plantation, oil&gas combined account for 51% of total Indonesia’s market cap. Banks and consumer cyclical account for 37% of market cap.

* The prospect of Indonesia getting sovereign rating upgrade (to investment grade) by Jun-2011 may start to build. Most investors previously expect a much later date. This, combined with the 25-30% fall in the rolling P/E valuation for bank stocks, could offer attractive trading opportunity for the sector despite the continuing concern on supply driven inflation.

* The thoughts of investors selling down Indonesian equities to switch to developed market (DM) equities could be more myth than reality. It could be true that the buying focus has shifted to other markets in recent weeks, but at least on our own trading pad, the selling flow has been driven by a mix of index shorts, sector switching (primarily from rate sensitive to mining), profit taking after the huge run in coal stocks, and arbitrage selling of banks (in anticipation of the US$1.5bn share placement in BMRI). My understanding is that country funds have been getting subscription of late.

* Better late than never, Stevanus Juanda today upgrades his earnings forecast on coal stocks, following coal price upgrade by coal analyst John Bridges on 15 Dec, using US$120/t thermal coal price versus US$105/t previously. For FY11E EPS, Indika upgraded by 36%, Adaro by 29%, Indo Tambang by 11%, Berau Coal by -1%, Bukit Asam by -2%, and Bumi Resources by -15%. Steve must be making major assumption changes other than coal price, since the most leverage companies getting negative EPS revision instead of an upgrade. Call him at +6221 5291-8574 for queries. My personal preference stays with Indika and the two most leveraged coal stocks of Indonesia.

* Simone Yeoh and Aditya Srinath (analyts) upgrade their CPO price assumption from M$2,800/t in 2011-12E to M$3,400/t in 2011E and M$3,200/t in 2012E (M$2,750/t in 2010). Aditya remains positive on AALI and LSIP.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 22.09

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