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Selasa, 11 Januari 2011

NOMURA ANCHOR REPORT: ASEAN Strategy - four themes for 2011

Action:
Viewed as an economic region, ASEAN has a GDP of US$1.5tn and a population of 590mn. With an increasing middle-income population and plentiful natural resources, we think four themes will play out for ASEAN — consumption, infrastructure, commodities, and M&A. We believe banks, consumer, and commodity-and infrastructure-related stocks will benefit most.
Anchor themes:
Rising middle-income populations, in addition to increasing rural incomes due to firmer commodity prices, will underpin domestic consumption in our view.

We believe infrastructure investments in ASEAN will lift ASEAN's growth potential and facilitate the creation of a single market by 2015.   
ASEAN: four themes for 2011  

ASEAN — combined GDP of US$1.5tn 
We think ASEAN's medium-term prospects are underpinned by an increasing middle-income population, abundant natural resources, and pro-growth policies. Collectively, ASEAN's GDP of US$1.5tn is ahead of both Russia 's and India 's.

Theme 1: increase in middle-income population supports consumption 
Our economists estimate that ASEAN's middle-class population could reach 300mn by 2014, which should underpin consumption growth. Consumer companies (Astra, QSR, F&N, Genting Malaysia ) and banks (Maybank, OCBC, Mandiri) look well positioned to benefit from the consumption theme.

Theme 2: lifting growth through infrastructure
Indonesia is investing up to US$150bn in infrastructure to lift its growth potential, while Malaysia plans to invest up to RM58.4bn to shift towards a higher-income economy. Thailand 's Thai Khemkhaeng (Stimulus Package 2) has allocated THB571bn for logistics and transportation. Material suppliers (Holcim, Siam Cement) and regional banks (CIMB, Maybank, OCBC) could benefit from the infrastructure theme.

Theme 3: ASEAN well endowed with resources
Indonesia, Malaysia , and Thailand are rich in agricultural and mineral resources. With commodity prices likely remaining on an uptrend, plantation and coal plays in ASEAN are beneficiaries. We like Golden Agri, Indofood Agri, Sime Darby, London Sumatra, and Adaro.

Theme 4: more cross-border M&A within ASEAN
We are likely to see increased M&A activity as ASEAN companies see acquisition opportunities within Southeast Asia . Companies that have been active on the M&A front who may continue or who have been reported to be interested in making acquisitions include F&N, DBS, PTT Group, Semen Gresik, Axiata, and Maybank.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 21.38

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