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Kamis, 13 Januari 2011

Daiwa Capital Markets - ASEAN Strategy

Summary

􀂃 We expect ASEAN markets to build on their gains of 2010 in 2011, as corporate earnings ride on robust household spending and rising infrastructure investment. Though real-GDP and EPS growth may slow this year, we see early signs that economic growth is broadening, which we believe bodes well for the medium-term sustainability of the economy and stock market. We
expect a further re-rating of ASEAN in 2011 to an average PER of 14.5x (above its past five-year average 12-month forward PER of 13.3x), on the back of 14.9% YoY EPS growth (based on the IBES-consensus forecasts), offering a potential return of 18% over the next 12 months.

􀂃 Within the ASEAN markets, we are Overweight on Indonesia, buoyed by a pick-up in infrastructure investment, and on Thailand for its undemanding relative valuations. We remain
Neutral on The Philippines and Singapore. We are concerned that domestic consumption growth in The Philippines could be dampened by the likely slowdown in Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW) remittances. Singapore’s relative valuations look less compelling than for
ASEAN on average.

􀂃 We remain Underweight on Malaysia for now, as we believe it lacks the catalysts for a near-term re-rating. Given its unimpressive track record of implementing national economic plans over the
past years, we believe investors would want to see further evidence that the New Economic Model (NEM) plans have taken root and that the economic revitalisation is under way. In the meantime, we would restrict our exposure to the financial and resource-based stocks.

􀂃 In terms of sectors, we are Overweight on banks, consumer durables, energy and materials,
based on our positive view of ASEAN’s domestic demand and our expectations of further
quantitative easing by developed economies. We are Neutral on consumer staples, industrials
and real estate, and Underweight on defensive sectors like telecoms and utilities.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 05.25

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