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Selasa, 11 Januari 2011

CLSA What to buy in consumer, from analyst Swati Chopra

Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ): Collateral damage

  • GGRM costs are largely unaffected by rising fuel costs and rising soft commodity prices. 70-75% of its cost is excise, 15-20% is tobacco and clove and rest is others.
  • Cigarette demand is relatively inelastic. With rising commodity prices, rural regions will benefit and GGRM has 30%+ market share in outer islands. We expect positive volume growth 1Q11
  • The current sharp weakness is without any fundamental reason and the stock is currently at 12.5x 2011CL P/E with 25% growth.
  • Opportunity to BUY. Cheapest stock in Indonesian coverage. 

Indofood (INDF IJ):

  • While we have an UPF on the stock as there is uncertainty on soft commodity prices and earnings risk near term if soft commodity prices sustain, we think current sharp correction is a buying opportunity long term.
  • If past is any guide, then all consumer companies have experienced a sharp expansion in margins when soft commodity prices correct as typically the companies do not pass on the cost cuts to consumers. 2009 was record year for all consumer names. 
  • If wheat, sugar prices remain high or go up higher then Indofood will raise prices of both noodles and dairy products in our view.
  • Last price increase for noodles was in Aug 2010 and dairy 1Q10. And subsequent correction of wheat and sugar prices will expand margins. However it is hard to predict the inflection point when wheat and sugar prices will correct.
  • Current sharp correction of the stock price is an attractive long termbuying opportunity.
  • Assuming 15% margin on noodle from 19% in 3Q10 and 8% on flour, INDF is at 13x 2011CL earnings
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 21.54

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