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Selasa, 11 Januari 2011

Credit Suisse Asia Equity Strategy: Indonesia down 8% from highs - Any undervalued sectors?

● Our theme continues to be to switch out of the 2007 club (the eleven GEM markets that are above their 2007 highs and within Asia, Indonesia, India, Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia). But we highlight that Indonesia’s JCI (Jakarta Composite Index) has fallen by 8% from its recent high of 3,800.

● On our price-to-book versus ROE valuation model, the only sector within Indonesia that is undervalued is Telcos trading on a 2% discount (see Figure 1).

● The second and third cheapest within Indonesia are Consumer Cyclicals and Financials. Both are still trading at premiums, though down substantially from their highs.

● While our only Indonesian exposure in the NJA (Non-Japan Asia) model portfolio (zero exposure in the GEM portfolio, see our 6 January GEM 2011 Outlook report) is to coal, we are rather surprised that the sector has now moved to a 77% premium to the region (see Figure 4). The 77% premium uses a current ROE of 25.9%, but appears priced for ROE to rise to 36%.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 21.52

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