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Kamis, 13 Januari 2011

CLSA Coal and CPO

iIt never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.”
- Jesse Livermore -

It's usually not a good idea to be staring at screens in volatile times, because one (or probably just me) tends to over-react.  One minute you panic sell and next panic buy.  You can always find a reason.  Of course sitting tight is not always easy.  Especially these days with the combination of multiple Bberg screens + Blackberries + CNBC, there are just too many noises.  As sad as it is., checking my blackberry every minute is my favorite hobby.  Maybe I should look into buying some Research In Motion to hedge my addiction. 

Well, good news is all the noises have contributed to the recent in discriminated selling in this market (including all the coal and CPO names) presenting a buying opportunity. While it is true that inflation is picking up in this part of the world, fundamentals of coal and CPO stocks are getting better and better.   

Spot coking coal prices have risen above $300/t FOB Australia, as steel mills scramble to secure supplies. Further rains in Queensland mean a significant percentage of rail and mine capacity will struggle to recover before the month end. Coking coal play in Indonesia is Borneo Lumbung (BORN IJ).

Thermal coal prices are increasing at a slower pace on the seaborne market, but continue to decline in China (this has led to power shortages in some areas of China, so it is not sustainable). In addition to the Australian floods, heavy rains in South Africa, Colombia and Indonesia are also pressuring export volumes there, tightening the global market. We continue to like Bumi, PTBA, Indika and Adaro. 

On the CPO side, the recent data continue to be bullish for grain prices all around. USDA's January report shows actual ending stocks are lower than consensus, despite several downward revisions in carryouts over the past few months. Our plantation analyst Di Shui thinks that this is very bullish for commodity markets and likely the immediate catalyst needed to bolster vegetable oil space and reinvigorate CPO prices after recent sell off. As highlighted in her note yesterday, sector valuation is no where close to record high (almost half of peak valuations in 2008).

Buy Astra Agro (AALI IJ) and London Sumatera (LSIP IJ).   For the most leverage, I would look at Bakrie Sumatra (UNSP IJ)
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 22.26

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