Fri, Feb 21 04:55 AM EST
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Global cocoa prices have rallied to 2-1/2-year
highs on worries El Nino could return in 2014, while other agricultural
commodity markets could also be hit by the specter of the weather
El Nino - a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific - affects
wind patterns and can trigger both floods and drought in different
parts of the globe, curbing food supply.
The worst El Nino on record in 1997/98 was blamed for massive flooding
along China's Yangtze river that killed more than 1,500 people.
El Nino means "boy" in Spanish and was first used by anchovy fishermen in Ecuador and Peru in the 19th century.
Below are some of the key commodities that could be affected by its return.
GRAINS, OILSEEDS, LIVESTOCK
El Nino could bring dry weather to Australia, which is already
struggling with a drought that has forced ranchers in the world's
third-biggest beef exporter to cull cows, raising fears of a global beef
shortage. El Nino could also curb wheat, sugar and cotton production in
An El Nino episode usually results in below-average rainfall in main
palm oil producers Indonesia and Malaysia, cutting yields and pushing up
It could also hurt crops in Thailand, one of the world's largest rice
exporters, potentially worsening drought conditions usually seen in
El Nino would bring milder-than-normal temperatures to the major crop
production areas of the U.S. Midwest. Iowa and Minnesota would benefit
from the event's tendency for wetter-than-normal summers as the western
Corn Belt continues to recover from a drought.
But excessive rains in the saturated soils of the eastern Corn Belt
could be troublesome, particularly following this year's overly snowy
winter. Drought-hit California, a major dairy and wine grape state,
could see more rain than normal.
In China, El Nino could bring more rain to areas south of the Yellow
River and cause flooding in the country's major rice and cotton growing
Lower-than-normal temperatures could also occur in the country's top
corn and soy areas in the northeast, leading to frost damage and lower
A strong El Nino in India would trigger lower production of summer crops
such as rice, sugarcane and oilseeds. India is the world's No.2
producer of rice and wheat.
The Philippines' weather bureau already expects rainfall to be "way
below" normal by April in most parts of the country, including
rice-growing provinces in the Central Luzon region and sugar plantations
in the Visayas provinces. El Nino could worsen that.
Previous El Nino episodes caused severe dry spells in the archipelago
affecting vast tracts of farmland. A rice shortfall due to typhoons and
drought connected to El Nino in 2010 prompted record imports of the
Global cocoa prices jumped to their strongest in more than two years in
February on concerns a returning El Nino could cut output in main
producers Ivory Coast, Ghana and Indonesia. The global market is
expected to experience a second straight deficit in 2014.
Erratic weather could affect the development of coffee cherries and
cocoa pods. In Indonesia, the world's third-largest cocoa producer, El
Nino usually means extremely dry weather.
Indonesia's coffee output is forecast to fall to 9.5 million 60-kg bags
in 2013/14 from 10.5 million in 2012/13 after dry weather at the start
of the season reduced flowering and excessive rain during cherry
development cut yields, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Indonesia competes in the robusta market with Vietnam, which would also suffer from an El Nino.
The Central Highlands region, which produces about 80 percent of
Vietnam's coffee, has entered the dry season, and falling waters in
rivers and streams coupled with strong wind would raise the risk of
water shortages, according to the Science and Technology Department in
the central highland province of Kontum.
El Nino usually brings warmer winters to Brazil, the world's top coffee
producer, reducing the risk of coffee frost. But heavy rains would crimp
Drier weather could also help beat back moisture-loving roya or leaf
rust fungus that is ravaging coffee plantations in Central America.
In 2009, El Nino turned Indian monsoon patchy, leading to the worst
drought in nearly four decades which helped push global sugar prices to
their highest in around 30 years.
(Reporting by Lewa Pardomuan in Singapore, Ho Binh Minh in Hanoi,
Apornrath Phoonphongphiphat in Bangkok, Anuradha Raghu in Kuala Lumpur,
Yayat Supriatna in Jakarta, Colin Packham in Sydney, Peter Murphy in
Bogota, Dominique Patton and Niu Shuping in Beijing, Chris Prentice and
Marcy Nicholson in New York, Erik Dela Cruz in Manila, Ratnajyoti Dutta
in Delhi and Karl Plume in Chicago; Editing by Joseph Radford)
me @ LOTS Trading Club (LTC)
Senin, 24 Februari 2014
- ▼ 2014 (7)
- ► 2013 (18)
- ► 2012 (80)
- ► 2011 (3338)