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Selasa, 16 April 2013

ASRI key takeaways from meeting

We attend Alam Sutera (ASRI IJ) analyst meeting yesterday. And the key takeaways are as follow:
 
Positive on 2013 outlook. The company is optimist with 2013 property outlook as they target to get marketing sales of IDR5.6trn, still mainly contributed from Serpong sales. With the land supply becoming limited in serpong area, price still expected to increase by 20% this year. Current land ASP from the latest launch, sutera palmyra on January and sutera victoria on February is offered at IDR 11m/sq m and IDR14m/ sq m, respectively.
 
Landbanking the north Serpong. With additional 170ha land acquired from Modernland, the company currently has in total  270ha landbank in North Serpong. The company indicated they can acquired 50ha more in the same areas. Acquisition cost range between IDR1.2-1.6m/sqm. With development cost is around IDR500K/sq m, gross margin from land sales should be maintained at more than 60%.
 
Suvarna sutera price to appreciate by 25%. The management plan to launch at least 4 new cluster. March pre-sales of IDR455bn is mainly contribute by launching in Pasar Kemis. The latest soft launch absorbed 70% take up rate. Management expect price to increase 25% this year from current asp of IDR3.2-3.3m/sq m (golf view) and IDR2.1-2.6m/sq m (non-golf view).
 
Update on GWK Bali. As acquisition process is completed in July 2012, the future recurring income is finalizing the masterplan where construction would take part by end of 2013. Capex for the GWK project for the next 3 years expected to reach IDR450bn and will be financed through internal cash or pre-sales.
 
USD Bonds II amounting USD235m. The company recently issued USD bond through its subsidiary (Alam Synergy Pte.Ltd) The coupon rate is 6.95% and will be marture in 2020. 40% of the proceeds will be used to repay company’s bank debt, 40% for land acquisition and 20% for working capital. The company plans to hedge the bonds principal where hedging cost is around 1.1%. The coupon itself will not be hedge but company will allocated its cash off around USD32m (or four times coupon payment) to secure the coupon payment.
 
NAV as of March 31,2013 of IDR36trn. 57% of the values still lies in its landbank in Serpong (excluding 150ha land acquired from Modernland), followed by landbank value in Pasar Kemis of IDR8.8trn (24% of NAV). The company new NAV is equivalent to IDR1,839/share. The counter is currently trading at 45% discount to company’s NAV. We will review our Target Price as we have yet take into account GWK projects, CBD office and new landbank from Modernland into our NAV calculation. But maintain our forecast with company to post net earnings growth of 39-18% for FY13-14f. BUY.
me @ LOTS Trading Club (LTC)

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