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Senin, 28 Januari 2013

Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ) by Jayden V

Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ) by Jayden V

·         Indonesia's most newsworthy coal producer Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ), presented at the CLSA's ASEAN access days in Singapore and Hong Kong.
·         In 2012, the ASP for their 68mt coal sales was US$82/t and in 2013 their budgeted ASP is between US$70/t to US$85/t in a bull case scenario assuming Newcastle rebounds to US$110/t. They expect c. 10% production growth in 2013 (lower than previous 2 years) as the focus is now on cost savings and deferring capex.
·         Operationally, the group is experiencing cash costs of US$45/t but hopes to cut the strip ratio from ~10.8bcm/t in 2012 down to ~10bcm/t saving about US$2.5/t. This means Ebit margins of c. US$20/t after factoring in depreciation. Fuel costs (28-30% of its COGS) remains a concern as they're stubbornly high.
·         The key question though is what they will do to delever (the group has US$4.2b net debt on its balance sheet with US$50m cash) and what is happening with the Rothschild/Bakrie divorce at the plc level. Dileep said asset sales of the mineral (BRMS assets) will occur after all the plc issues are resolved (though he was unsure on timing) as it will impact the price realised on asset sales. Asset sales remain the preferred method of raising cash to delever.
·         In our view, the stock is a leveraged play on the value of the BRMS assets and any upside for investors hinges upon the timing and price of these sales. Given CLSA's coal price downgrade this week to US$90/t for 2014, the cashflow generated from the coal assets KPC and Arutmin will also be lower than previous years in our forecast.

me @ LOTS Trading Club (LTC)

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