Gajah Tunngal (GJTL IJ) by Sarina Lesmina
· Rubber prices have started to come off to 498US$c/kg, (-0.4%) ytd. Given almost 50% of COGS related to rubber, GT will benefit from the decline in rubber price.
· The company is also a beneficiary of appreciating Rupiah. In 1Q11, GT booked Rp128bn in forex gain, 66% increase YoY.
· With low auto penetration, a rising middle class and better purchasing power, GT stands to beenfit from strong auto demand in Indonesia.
· Share price had appreciated by 23% in past two weeks. The stock is now trading at 12.3x PE11Cons and 2.4xPBV11Cons.
Agung Podomoro (APLN IJ) by Sarina Lesmina
APLN remains the leader in the rising middle-segment condo market, with about 50% share, including properties under the parent, Agung Podomoro Group. It is well known for its quality products, which attracts repeat buyers. The company had delivered 19% cagr for the residential unit sales in past 10 years.
· APLN's main projects will be completed in the next two to three years. The company has to actively look for new ventures to ensure sustainable growth. Moreover, APLN plans to continue focusing on properties within the city and will not go into big township development in the suburbs. APLN is still progressing with securing more land bank in Jakarta for future development. The company acknowledged that it is still talking to Bakrieland (ELTY IJ) on the proposed sale of 8ha land in ELTY's Rasuna Episentrum project.
· APLN hopes to make announcement on land acquisition during AGM in June. APLN expects IRR of around 20% for new projects.
· APLN also wants to increase recurring income to 50% in 2015 from 6% currently. Malls and offices in its superblock projects will be the source of the recurring income
Selasa, 17 Mei 2011
Indonesia Palm Oil Sector - The govt may revise CPO export tax bracket - Credit Suisse
● The Indonesian government is planning to revise the CPO export tax bracket. Bisnis Indonesia reported on 12 May 2011 that under the new scheme, the government will increase the non-taxable threshold for CPO export tax from $700 to $750 and cut the highest rate from the bracket from 25% to 20%.
● This proposed export tax scheme is likely to increase Indonesia plantation companies' earnings sensitivity to CPO price in a very high price (more than $1,200/tonne) or in a very low price (less than $750/tonne) condition, resulting upside risk in earnings for Indonesia plantation companies.
● Although the new scheme provides possibility in earnings upside, we believe that it may not be realised, as we foresee the risk of downward trend in CPO price onwards due to high CPO supply growth this year.
● We remain cautious on the downside risk of CPO price trends ahead. We maintain our NEUTRAL ratings on AALI, LSIP, SGRO and IFAR.
● This proposed export tax scheme is likely to increase Indonesia plantation companies' earnings sensitivity to CPO price in a very high price (more than $1,200/tonne) or in a very low price (less than $750/tonne) condition, resulting upside risk in earnings for Indonesia plantation companies.
● Although the new scheme provides possibility in earnings upside, we believe that it may not be realised, as we foresee the risk of downward trend in CPO price onwards due to high CPO supply growth this year.
● We remain cautious on the downside risk of CPO price trends ahead. We maintain our NEUTRAL ratings on AALI, LSIP, SGRO and IFAR.
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