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Selasa, 12 April 2011

Regional Plantation Faster rise in inventory - DBS Vickers

• Mar11 palm oil output rose a faster-than-expected 29% m-o-m to 1.416m MT, lifting inventory by 9% to 1.614m MT
• Mar11 palm oil exports rose 11% m-o-m to 1.235m MT after dropping the last two months, but rise was lower than estimated
• Apr-May11 stock/usage ratio to fall to 8.6% from 8.9%, before rising gradually to 11.4% by year end
• Prefer processors and high-growth upstream planters. Top picks: Sampoerna A., Genting P., Sime, Mewah, Wilmar, First Resources


Mar11 yield recovery beat forecast. Data released by MPOB yesterday showed 29% m-o-m recovery in Mar11 Malaysian palm oil production to 1.416m MT – beating our 1.337m MT estimate. In addition to the seasonal production uptick, we suspect improved weather conditions allowed for more FFB harvesting. We expect Apr11 output to ease to 1.363m MT before resuming uptrend from May11 onwards.

…but exports lagged behind. Mar11 exports also grew m-o-m, but slower at 11%. This was principally due to 50% and 44% m-o-m drops in exports to the EU and India , and the 5% rise in exports to China was softer-than-expected. These resulted in a 9% m-o-m rise in Mar11 palm oil ending inventory to 1.614m MT against our 1.442m MT estimate. We expect Malaysian palm oil exports to maintain an upward trajectory going forward, i.e. up 17% m-o-m in April, followed by 5% growth in May – in line with seasonally higher output. Hence, ending stocks should remain flat over the period.

Downdraft in palm oil prices to start after May11, based on our stock/usage ratio expectations. A risk to our call would be crude oil/diesel prices continuing to strengthen, as the growing gap between CPO and biodiesel prices (partly due to increased diesel demand from Japanese peak-load power plants) would be an incentive for more blending. A 1% shift in US prospective planting to corn in 11/12F season may also support near-term soybean prices. However, key to our expectation is a surge in 2H11 palm oil supply that should eventually widen the discount between palm oil and soybean oil. A rebound in 11/12F South American soybean supplies should also ease current soybean price strength by end CY11.

Prefer processors and high-growth upstream companies. In a falling feedstock price environment, processors should benefit given the lag time in ASP adjustments. Our top picks in the sector are Sampoerna A., Genting P., Wilmar, Mewah and First Resources. We also like Sime Darby for strong growth prospects in property, motor and industrial segments. Our CY11F-13F CPO price forecasts are currently under review with upside bias.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 09.51

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