Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Selasa, 12 April 2011

Bumi-Vallar, Upgrade Telkom, and Stay bullish on palm oil - Nomura

Vallar mentioned that it intends to increase its stake at Bumi Resources to around 50% by May 10. This will be done thru a share swap mechanism where every 57.7 holders of Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ) shares will be offered 1 share of Vallar (VAA LN) implying Bumi Resources swap conversion price at Rp3,240/share. Vallar is now in talks with CIC to discuss acceleration of US$600mn debt repayment in October 2011 and assessing various payment schemes for the total of US$1.9bn debt of Bumi Resources to CIC that carries 12% coupon with 19% IRR.

Vallar also mentioned that CIC has an interest to be a long-term partner with Bumi Resources, which that CIC is looking into potential debt/equity or debt to asset swap settlement – in line with our view. The settlement/restructuring/refinancing of Bumi’s debt to CIC will reduce the hefty interest burden and thus earnings enhancing. We remain positive on BUMI and retain our target price at Rp4,300/share.

Our telecom analyst, Sachin Gupta, upgraded Telkom Indonesia from Neutral to BUY. PT Telkom’s (TLKM IJ) FY12F P/E of 10.6x and EV/EBITDA of 3.4x is at a three-year low, and at a 20-40% discount to regional peers. While we do not dismiss concerns on inconsistent execution, we reckon its strong network / distribution advantage cannot be underestimated, as is its ability to maintain an edge in the fast growing ex-Java region.

Regulations also appear in favour. After a weak 1H10, in 2H10 its incremental revenue and EBITDA share rose to 47% and 42%, respectively and we expect these trends to be maintained. Capital management at the upcoming AGM could offer a total 6% yield. We upgrade to BUY with a price target of Rp8,500.

Our plantation analyst, Ken Arieff, maintain his Bullish view on the palm oil sector despite the strong Malaysian production recovery in March11 (+29% mom; due low base/Johor flooding in Feb11). Total production for 3m2011 is still down 7.7% yoy. Demand also recovered strongly (export +10.8% mom) mainly due to the restocking effect after weak exports in February due to festive season (Chinese New Year) and a shorter February month. As a result, inventory down 2.5% yoy (+9% mom); comfortable at 1.6mn mT (The average March inventory in the past five years has been 1.61mn tonnes).

In our view, poor soft commodity production (underpinning the tight stock to usage ratio), strengthening crude oil prices and a weak US dollar continue to provide support for the sector. Our picks in Indonesia is London Sumatra (LSIP IJ – BUY) and we also have a BUY recommendation on Astra Agro (AALI IJ). It is also worth to look at small cap plantations that provide strong growth profile with reasonable valuation on EV/planted hectare matrix.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 09.50

Tidak ada komentar:

Posting Komentar

Langganan: Posting Komentar (Atom)