Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Sabtu, 16 April 2011

Indonesia Cement Sector - Strong March cement sales - Deutsche Bank

Strong demand outlook; we reiterate Semen Gresik as our top pick
Despite some margin weakness due to limited pricing flexibility and rising cost pressures, we still see marginal earnings improvement in 1Q11, supported by strong cement demand. We remain upbeat on the cement sector as we hope to see higher cement prices starting 2Q11 on the back of much stronger demand as Indonesia enters the dry season of May/June. Our top pick is Semen Gresik given its new capacity due by the end of 2011, superior brand equity, and access to the fastest-growing region, the Outer Islands.

Strong March cement sales: 3.8m tons (+11% YoY; +15% MoM)
The strong cement sales in March mainly came from Java, which grew by 15% YoY compared to 7% YoY growth in the Outer Islands. Java’s strong growth mainly came from Jakarta, West Java and Central Java, while Kalimantan, Eastern Indonesia and Sulawesi recorded negative growth, offsetting Sumatra’s strong sales of +24% YoY (see Figure 2 on page 2). Overall, cement sales in 1Q11 reached 10.5m tons (+9% YoY) and were in line with our 2011 forecast of 44m tons, translating into monthly sales of 3.8m tons (+7% YoY).

Holcim Indonesia continued to record the strongest growth
Holcim Indonesia (SMCB) registered a 31% YoY (+17% MoM) increase in its cement sales, compared to Indocement (INTP) at +12% YoY (+17% MoM) and Semen Gresik (SMGR) at +1% YoY (+12% MoM). Both SMCB and INTP recorded double-digit sales growth amid strong cement demand in their main markets – Jakarta, West Java and Center Java. Overall, the top three cement players’ results are in line with our 2011 forecasts, with SMCB’s 1Q11 cement sales at 1.6m tons (+24% YoY) and INTP and SMGR at 3.2m tons (+8% YoY) and 4.3m tons (+1% YoY), respectively. (See pages 2-3 for more details.)

DCF valuation and risks
We use DCF analysis to value the cement sector stocks. Risks for the sector include (1) banks’ unwillingness to cut interest rates and extend loans for mortgages, (2) delays in infrastructure development, and (3) rising energy prices.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 21.12

Tidak ada komentar:

Posting Komentar

Langganan: Posting Komentar (Atom)