Holding On - CLSA Indo

Indonesian Strategy, Valuation Check.

Indo HoR Dee Senaratne looks through the Indonesian market, and while a number of global risks exist, the market is well supported fundamentally, helped by a 25bps rate hike and better inflation data.

The volatility is likely to persist, as the inflation and deflation fears are taking turn. While last year is the year of the small caps, Dee prefers to focus on large and liquid blue chip stocks this year. He highlighted in his report today that big caps have begun to outperform the small caps. This could be the signal of a longer term change in sentiment.

The market currently trades at 13x 11CL with 25% earnings growth and 27% ROE. Coal, property and banks all look attractive.

Key points from report:
· JCI has turned-around since 2011's early sell-off, supported by a 25bps rate hike, and better than expected inflation data
· Potential themes going forward are lower inflation, continued Rupiah strength
· This will benefit consumer stocks with USD cost bases such as Unilever (UNVR IJ), Indofood (INDF IJ), Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)
· Indo is exposed to global risks, but we remain constructive on JCI as foreign liquidity may come out of Japan into Indo and other EMs
· Focus on blue-chip stocks in this volatile market
· Key sectors are: Coal (BUMI IJ & ADRO IJ), Property (BSDE IJ & LPKR IJ), Banking (BBCA IJ), and Cement (INTP IJ)