Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Rabu, 16 Maret 2011

Flavour (Indo): Sean Darby, BNI, Budget - Nomura

Our Regional Strategist Sean Darby notes that the sharp drop in equity markets following the declines in Japan suggests a degree of panic is beginning to sweep through the region. While news concerning the damaged nuclear plants is unlikely to get better in the short term, falls in Asian equities have not been corroborated by moves in other financial assets such as money markets or FX. Moreover, a number of financial indicators suggest shares are oversold while there is little evidence of any liquidity or solvency issues that might cause investors to hoard cash.

It is worth to note that from exhibit 15 of Sean’s report that foreign selling in Indonesia seems to have abated.

BNI (BBNI IJ – Buy) has expressed interest to acquire Bahana Securities, one of Garuda IPO underwriters, by swapping its holding of recap bonds with Bahana shares owned by government. Bahana Securities is facing difficulties after a poor demand for Garuda (GIAA IJ) IPO that leave it with around one third portion of the US$250m unsubscribed shares of Garuda.

BNI president director, Gatot Suwondo, expressed that BNI will pay the acquisition with recap bonds instead of cash. Although BNI has enough cash after Rp10.45tn right issue last year, the right issue fund will be utilized for credit expansion and capital injection for subsidiaries instead of acquisition. This acquisition is in line with BNI’s plan to look for inorganic growth by acquiring financial or insurance companies.



Indonesia expects 2011 budget deficit to increase by Rp8tn (US$800m) due to lower oil production and higher oil prices. Minister of Finance, expects that in 2011 Indonesia will only produce 945,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd), which is lower than 970,000 bopd currently budgeted. Average oil prices will also be higher than currently assumed in the budget of US$80 per barrel. However, he believes that impact of lower oil production volume and higher oil prices will be partially mitigated by stronger Rupiah. As a result, 2011 budget deficit is expected to increase by Rp8tn or 6.5% from current figure of Rp124.7tn (US$13.9bn), representing budget deficit of 1.9% of GDP.

Our top picks to BUY in this correction remain unchanged: Astra International, Bank Mandiri, ITMG, Adaro, and London Sumatra.

Automotive/Conglo Overweight Beneficiary of rising middle class/purchasing power.
Commodity Overweight Higher prices, higher volumes.
Infrastructure Overweight New land acquisition bill will be the catalyst.
Property Overweight Beneficiary of infrastructure development.
Banks/Financial services Neutral Strong loan growth, but NIM will gradually decline.
Telecom Neutral Ex-growth, but defensive.
Consumer Underweight Input costs pressure.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 12.05

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