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Selasa, 22 Maret 2011

From the Ground - Sales Daily - UBS Indo

JCI poised to play catch up with a surging bond and FX markets?

The FX and bond markets are rallying strongly but the Indo equities market has not yet followed suit. We think a catch up rally is in only a matter of time.

1. Why was USD/IDR collapsing yesterday?
The first Chart of the Day (bottom of the page) shows that USD/IDR has collapsed to new lows in the past couple of days, crashing through the 8,750 resistance level to trade at 8,733 as we write.

The latest move follows yesterday’s headline on BBRG:

Bank Indonesia not worried about March, April, May inflation

Our spot traders (and their Indonesia-based counterparts in the interbank market) believe that a gradual move towards the May 2007 low of 8,640 is inevitable (with MENA/oil being the key risk to that scenario). Our rates strategist Sid Mather issues some words of warning to which the FX market seems to be paying no heed at present:

Indonesia's central bank governor now suggesting inflation may not show up until Q3, despite investors having been worried for the past six months. These comments may turn out to have an opposite effect to what's desired, as investors may once again turn wary of policy complacency, especially if commodity prices strengthen. Soft inflation in March will be welcomed, but more adventurous forecasts are likely to be taken with a large dose of skepticism.

2. Bond and equities markets - is the relationship breaking down, or will equities play catch up?
The bond market has been remarkable strong of late (see the second Chart of the Day below), with one of our fixed income colleagues describing it as 'unshakable against bleeding global markets'. The yield on the 10 year has fallen below 8.2%:

We have argued that this year, given that inflation is at the forefront of investor concerns, the bond market will lead the equities market, and rightly enough until recently the equities market has tracked every move in the bond market.

Our head of research Joshua Tanja points out that since 9 March the relationship has temporarily broken down, with the bond (and currency) markets continuing to rally while the JCI has steadily fallen.

Is the relationship between the bonds and the equities market breaking down?
We don't think so - instead, we think that equities have been sideswipped by Japan/MENA/Oil, but that they will rally to catch up with the ongoing bull market in bonds. Falling soft commodity price futures (wheat, CPO) and diminishing inflation concerns will give the equities market the excuse it needs to rally.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 11.47

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