· FY10 results are in-line with expectation: INDF reported FY10 net income of Rp2.95 trillion: up 42% Y/Y from Rp2.1 trillion in FY09. The reported FY10 net income came in-line (~5% above) with both JPM’s and consensus’ forecast of Rp2.82 trillion. Subtracting the forex gain & losses and other non core items, FY10 core net income of Rp2.98 trillion is up 72.5% Y/Y. The FY10 core net income is in-line wth JPM’s (4.6% above) and slightly above consensus’ (5.7%) estimates of Rp2.85 trillion and Rp2.82 trillion respectively.
· 4Q10 core net income growth was strong: 4Q10 core net income came in at Rp762 bn, up 48% Y/Y and down 9% Q/Q. The flat Q/Q result is mainly due to the significant rise in minority interest: from Rp198bn in 3Q10 to Rp399bn in 4Q10, due to the listing of ICBP. Overall, the result is somewhat positive and INDF could trade upward based on this result.
· Unanswered question with regards to SIMP listing: INDF had previously disclosed that the proceeds from Salim Ivomas Pratama listing will be used to further invest in the agriculture business. With Rp2.3 trillion in FY10 plantation EBIT and 20,000 ha p.a expansion (likely to cost Rp1 trillion p.a), we don’t think it is necessary to raise extra funds for organic expansion. With this, we believe that the fund raised could potentially be used for: (1) Further expansion into sugar. (2) Potential acquisition of agriculture businesses (CPO, sugar, rubber, etc.). In addition, the listing could also be used for tax minimization purpose.
· Maintain Neutral and PT of Rp5,000: At this point, we are still waiting for the detailed financials and will follow up with a more detail report. Meanwhile, we maintain our Neutral rating and SOTP Dec-11 PT of Rp5,000 on INDF. The risks to our view and PT are: (1) Listing of SIMP causing outperformance. (2) Decline in CPO price causing underperformance.
Selasa, 22 Maret 2011
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