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Jumat, 25 Maret 2011

Adhi Karya (ADHI IJ, TP IDR950) FY10 results: Net profit in line, margins widen - OSK Nusadana

· FY10 net profit within expectation. Adhi Karya posted a FY10 net profit of IDR189.5bn, up 15% y-o-y, which was in line with our expectation (FY10F:184.3trn) but higher than consensus’ estimated IDR173trn. The increase was mainly supported by higher margins and a lower effective tax rate. Revenue, however, dropped 26% y-o-y to IDR5.7trn, coming in 8% below our forecast of IDR6.2trn, mainly on the later-than-expected launch of government projects. Meanwhile, its operating profit of IDR551bn for FY10 was ahead of our and consensus estimates of IDR490bn and IDR505bn respectively. Overall, we are satisfied with the company’s FY10 numbers.

· EPC and property segment partly boost margins. The company booked 12.5% in gross margin in FY10, which was its highest annual margin ever, expanding by 400bps from 8.5% in FY09. We have yet to get the revenue breakdown for FY10 but judging from the 9M10 results, we believe the margin expansion was from: i) strong revenue growth in the Engineering, Procurement & Construction (EPC) and property (ADHI Realty) segments; and ii) claims of cost escalation in the government’s multi-year projects. The EPC and property segments normally command higher margin than the ordinary construction business. The higher revenue contribution from its property unit, Adhi Realty, also helped to reduce its effective tax rate as the company pays a normal corporate tax rate of 25% versus the 3% final tax charged to its construction revenue.

· Accelerating balance sheet recovery. The company made a provisioning for IDR96bn in bad debt in 4Q10, of which IDR82bn was for its Qatar project. We are positive with management’s aim to quickly clean up its balance sheet of further provisioning, especially from the failed Qatar project. This should help boost the company’s earnings beyond 2012, when the remaining IDR250bn in bad debt associated with the Qatar project is expected to be cleared.

· Buy maintained with TP of IDR950. ADHI is now trading at 6.3x and 5.5x its 2011-12f earnings respectively, or a 30% discount to the average sector valuation. At this juncture, we maintain our Buy call as our TP of IDR950 provides a 20% upside potential. The company’s high margin in 2010 may provide an upside to our earnings forecasts, but this may be offset by future provisioning on bad debts. ADHI’s higher gearing compare to its peers may also hinder its ability to capture future projects owing to financing constraints. The company has been planning a rights issue to pare down its debts since 2005 but this has yet to materialize.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 09.43

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