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Kamis, 24 Maret 2011

PT Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk On Attractive Spot - AAA Securities

SummaryBased on ANTM’s unaudited FY10 results, revenue growth is relatively flat, butnet profit jumped 175% yoy, mostly due to declining cost by 22% yoy. The grossprofit margin increased significantly to 33.4% in FY10 (from 13.75% in FY09). Thecompany’s current stock price is attractive at this moment, as our TP offers 11%upside potential. As such, we upgrade our recommendation from HOLD to BUY.

 Revenue is relatively flat; Net profit jumped 175% yoy
ANTM reported unaudited FY10 result with surprisingly robust figures. Net incomejumped 175% yoy to Rp1,663 billion, beating our and consensus estimations. Thestunning jump in net profit was driven by lower than anticipated COGS, a factor thatwe admit, made our FY10 forecast on net profit at Rp 1,373 billion, deviated by aboutRp2 trillion lower. COGS down by 22% yoy, constituting only 89% of our estimates.Management said that lower COGS was caused by the declining metal trading activityas it has low margin. Currently we are still waiting for full year meeting to have clearview whether company’s decision to stop metal trading activity should sustain goingforward. Audited financial statement report will be on public by mid of March.

 COGS Declined by 22% as Metal Trading Activity Halted
While we admit that our forecast on COGS was missed, unaudited revenue was about100% with our estimate. Revenue run at a flat rate, 0% yoy growth to Rp8,745 billion.On quarterly basis, revenue up 113% yoy on higher ASP on ferronickel of +7% qoq ;gold +13% qoq and silver +13% yoy, while volume were recorded mix with ferronickel -3% qoq ; gold +20% yoy and silver +14% yoy. ANTM’s biggest revenue contributor isstill ferronickel (42%) followed by nickel ore (27%), gold (10%), silver and other metalby 21%.

 Rely on Gold in 2011
Moving into 2011, in conjuction with current gold prices which already reached itsnew record plus bad weather that is predicted to come to an end in 1Q11, ANTM’sshould have better gold production. For 2011, we believe gold will be the key factorto propel ANTM’s profitability to a higher level. Meanwhile the biggest contributor,ferronickel, will apparently remain flat due to an overhaul in its ferronickel factories,Feni II and unsustainable nickel spot price.

 Valuation, Upgrade to BUY
Company’s current share price is attractive at this moment, giving more than 10%discount from its FY11F fair value at Rp2,500. We assign fair value of ANTM atRp2,500 using blended valuation method to capture short and long term exposure oncompany’s fundamental. The stock currently is traded at 11.9x vs our implied TP at13.2x, historically the stock is traded at PE 15x. On that basis, we change our viewfrom HOLD to BUY
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 14.03

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