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Senin, 21 Maret 2011

UNTR (TP Rp24,500) : Ripples from Japan - Danareksa

TP trimmed to Rp24,500, BUY maintained
We adjust our heavy equipment sales and coal mining contracting targets, as well as our coal mining operations sales target. Our new assumptions assume that expected heavy equipment supply disruptions as a result of the disaster in Japan shall have an adverse impact on heavy equipment sales, consequently affecting the mining contracting business expansion plan and production at the coal mines. Our FY11-12F EPS targets are adjusted down by 5.4-3.9%, as a consequence. Our lower TP of Rp24,500 implies P/E 11-12F of 16.9-13.8x, admittedly at the high end of the historical P/E, yet justified thanks to higher coal prices and the ongoing recovery taking place in the coal mining industry.

Mixed February results
Heavy equipment sales dropped 6.0% mom to 687 units, although the figure is still way above the historical average of 355 units/month. Sales from the mining segment still dominate, indicating that coal miners will have the ability to expand their production, although there will be headwinds going forward due to heavy equipment supply disruption from Japan. Pama’s coal and overburden removal dropped slightly by 1.6% and 0.9% mom, respectively, in February, indicating that the weather at the mining sites has yet to improve. DEJ sales in February were flat at 239kt, while TTA sales increased by 26.1% mom to 87kt.

Short-term disruptions from the Japanese disaster
We adjust our FY11 heavy equipment sales assumption to 5,800 units this year, reflecting the reduction of large equipment used in the mining sector as a result of the impact of the recent earthquake/tsunami in Japan . Since this may also pose a threat to coal miners/mining contractors expansion plans for 2011, we adjust Pama’s coal mining and overburden removal target to 85.0Mt and 722.5mnbcm, respectively. We maintain our DEJ coal sales target, while cutting our TTA’s coal sales target to 1.2Mt this year.

Long-term prospects still rosy
We remain upbeat on UNTR’s long term outlook given that coal miners are still racing to meet the increasing demand from the completion of power plant projects in China and India , and not to forget the expected increase in domestic demand. This shall keep the demand for heavy equipment and mining contracting services high. In addition, we also expect the weakening of the La NiƱa weather phenomenon to provide better conditions for coal production and overburden removal, since the weather is expected to return to normal by the winter of 2011 (or June 2011 in Australia ).

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