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Selasa, 22 Maret 2011

Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF.JK) Alert: FY10 Analyst Briefing Key Takeaways - Citigroup

 2010 net profit up 42% YoY — Volume growth and higher ASPs led to the 2.7% YoY rise in revenues to Rp38.4trn (94% of CIRA FY10E; 98% of Consensus). This, along with input cost savings from stronger IDR and lower interest payments (following deleveraging post ICBP listing) led to the 42.2% YoY rise in NP to Rp2.95trn.

 2011 key growth drivers — a) higher pricing power in instant noodle (INDF has increased ASPs by 7-8% in Jan 2011; b) improved CPO volume and favourable CPO/rubber price outlook (vs. 2010); c) lower input costs on the back of stronger rupiah; d) ongoing dairy capacity expansion to translate to volume growth; and e) lower interest payments post ICBP listing.

 CBP: Pricing power and volume growth — Favourable performance from CBP business (Revenues: +9.4% YoY to Rp18.2trn; EBIT: +44.8% YoY to Rp2.6trn; EBIT margin: 14.4% vs FY09’s 10.9%) stemmed from higher ASPs (+3 to 5% YoY) and volume growth (+3.9% noodles to 11.5bn packs; +5.1% solid-based dairy to 176k tons; +2.8% liquid-based dairy to 92.1k tons) within the noodles and dairy segment.

 Bogasari: Stronger IDR and volume growth offset lower ASPs — Despite logging 8.9% lower revenues (due to lower ASPs following lower wheat prices), EBIT still rose 35.1% YoY to Rp1.8trn and EBIT margin grew from 9.5% to 14% underpinned by lower input costs (stronger IDR) and 2.1% volume growth to 2.3m tons. As at FY10, Bogasari’s market share is 52% vs. FY09’s 59%. Going forward, strategic focus would remain on achieving volume growth.

 Agribusiness: Higher prices compensate volume declines — Revenue rose 13.6% YoY to Rp13.7trn on higher CPO/rubber ASPs, which helped offset lackluster volume performance (-6% YoY to 969k tons) due to unfavourable weather conditions and previous fertilizer usage cuts amongst plasma farmers. Overall, EBIT grew 28.9% YoY to Rp2.3trn and margin expanded from 14.7% in FY09 to 16.7% in FY10.

 Capex — In 2010, actual new plantings were lower than the initial target (due to wet weather conditions and longer land compensation negotiation and regulatory approval process) with slight construction delays in its Dairy plant (pending permit from the government but aims to start construction in April 2011). Hence, it has some unused capex in 2010 that will be incorporated in the 2011 capex budget of Rp5.2trn. Capex breakdown: Rp2.2trn agribusiness, Rp1.8trn CBP (73% for dairy and noodles), Rp1.0trn Bogasari, and Rp125.6bn distribution.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 09.21

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