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Kamis, 05 Mei 2011

PGAS:Lower volume guidance - Mandiri

As expected PGAS 1Q11 volume fell below 800 MMSCFD on supply reduction from Conoco Phillips. PGAS also lowered its volume guidance to 780-820 MMSCFD from a flat growth of FY10 distribution volume of 840 MMSCFD. PGAS seems to have low confidence it can bring back the lost volume despite the arrival of the Jambi Merang field which is intended to replace the lost volume through gas swap with Conoco. Future news flows are from announcement of upstream acquisition end 2Q11, and the arrival of gas from FSRT (Floating Storage Regasification Terminal). However financial impact of FSRU (FSR Unit) in our view is small. We are maintaining our Buy call with Rp4,960 target price. An addition of Rp50/share from the previous TP is DCF contribution of the FSRU in North Jakarta.

FSRU DCF contribution of Rp50/share. FSRU capex is estimated at US$100mn for piping infrastructure. The FSRU will be rented from Golar at US$500mn for 11 years in conjunction with the length of Mahakam PSC HOA Agreement of 11.75 MT LNG supply. The IRR of the project is estimated at 14% (in USD) for 160 MMSCFD from 500 MMSCFD capacities. Under the assumption of 30% capacity, we estimated a DCF of Rp50/share for PGAS at WACC of 10.1%, no debt, and long term growth rate of 5%.

The trouble with Conoco Phillips. Out of agreed 420 MMSCFD flow from Conoco Phillips, it is likely that PGAS can only obtain 290 MMSCFD. As Chevron needs the gas from Conoco to enhance oil recovery, and since Indonesia is falling behind its production target, it is unlikely BPMigas, which authorizes gas allocation and is also responsible for Indonesia’s oil production, will allow Conoco to reflow its gas to PGAS.

Why then it is still a ‘Buy’. There is a value in PGAS pipe network and its network is the only one reaching up to customers’ (meaning industries, not PLN) door. What happens is lack of supply, therefore, what is needed to make PGAS attractive for gas producers to sell to. Here lies the problem; Pertamina has its own subsidiary Pertamina Gas, which is in the same line of business with PGAS. Pertamina Gas’s license for gas transportation was given in January 14, 2009. Pertamina Gas manages Pertamina’s 43 gas transmission section. Pertamina is state-owned oil and gas exploration and producer. The areas not served by Pertamina Gas are commercial and retail, where PGAS should be focusing on.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 16.50

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