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Selasa, 03 Mei 2011

PTBA:Down-side risks of coal railway delivery - Mandiri

PTBA mined 3.0Mt of coal in 1Q11 or 19.2% from its FY11 production guidance of 15.6Mt. PTBA’s IPC Kalimantan mine only produced 0.1Mt of the total FY11 plan of 0.9Mt, while its coal railway delivery was just 20.5% of total 13.6Mt planned in FY11. Ramp-up in railway delivery can only be expected in 2H, which means 2H train delivery should reach 8.0Mt or 4.0Mt/quarter from 1Q11 achievement of 2.8Mt (4Q10 : 2.75Mt). Rising coal price can only be expected from FY11 export of 7.0Mt (ours is 4.8Mt) or 41.6% of FY11 volume sales of which 1.0Mt has been delivered in 1Q11. Therefore short-term catalysts remain on the arrival of new locomotives and trains, which is out of the company’s control. With our target price of Rp23,950 is just 7.2% from the current price, we downgraded our Buy call to Neutral.

1Q11 revenue boosted by rising price. The 1Q11 sales volume (+2.9% qoq and -3.9% yoy) of 3.1Mt was 18.3% of FY11 volume sales guidance. The 1Q11 revenue of Rp2,315bn was only a function of higher Average Selling Price. With 1Q11 ASP (our calculation) of US$84.5/ton (+40.7% yoy, and +19.7% qoq), revenue was able to improve by 29.9% yoy and 15.3% qoq. The result was within our estimate, although lower than consensus expectation. We have previously scaled back our FY11 volume sales forecast to 14.1Mt (from company’s guidance of 16.8Mt). Since domestic price has been locked, especially for the 8.8Mt contracted with PLN, ASP kick for PTBA’s earnings in the following quarters will be less significant vs other coal peers.

No significant progress from other projects made in the 1Q11. There were no significant progresses reported in the 1Q11 on many projects currently planned by PTBA. Many of the projects are with Chinese investors or lenders (Transpacific railway, Banjarsari power plant). China investments, in general, according to Gita Wirjawan, Head of Investment Coordination Board, have low realization. Catalysts from these areas, therefore, remain difficult to obtain.

Downgraded to Neutral. With price catalyst is in lower importance compared with its peers, excitement in PTBA can only come from production volume realization. In this aspect, there is high expectation built in the on-time arrival and operational of locomotives and trains procured by PTKA, state-owned railway company. We see a likelihood of down-side risks from currently planned 13.6Mt coal railway delivery for FY11.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 13.51

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