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Rabu, 04 Mei 2011

KALBE FARMA (KLBF): Below Strong +23% Y/Y 1Q EPS- Beneficiary of Strong IDR - Credit Suisse

Following recent slightly below expectation 1Q11 results (See Page 7) but upgrades due to stronger IDR assumptions (Page 3), Ella’s Earnings estimates are revised as Figure 6 page 3. KLBF continues to offer defensive earnings growth on the back of growing domestic consumption, Good Management and Solid Balance Sheet, with inorganic upside on the table. At Rp3,600- KLBF is trading on Justified Premium 22.0x 2011F PER on +27% EPS Growth (in-line to historical average 50% premium to market, CS Indonesia Universe is on 14.6x 2011F PER) and in-line to DCF Rp3,400, however on valuation we reiterate TAKE PROFIT and switch to Buy GGRM/ICBP!

· Ella Nusantoro (Report attached): We reiterate our NEUTRAL rating on Kalbe Farma (KLBF.JK) and raise our DCF-based target price to Rp3,400 as we revise our assumption on growth to 6%, from the previous 5.8%, based on Indonesia’s 2011E GDP growth. We are using 11.7% WACC and our new target price implies a 20.8x 2011E P/E on 1% earnings growth CAGR for 2011-13E.

· Beneficiary of stronger Rupiah. With majority of its raw materials being imported, Kalbe Farma’s earning is sensitive to the fluctuation of Rupiah/USD. Approximately 90% of its raw materials’ cost is USD denominated, we calculate that for every 1% change in Rupiah, it will impact earnings by around 2%, assuming other things remain equal. We assume average exchange rate at Rp8,620 in 2011 and Rp8,175 in 2012 from the previous Rp8,550.

· What to do with the cash? As at the end of March 2011, Kalbe Farma’s cash stood at Rp2.3 tn, with minimal debt, with its net cash at Rp2.1 tn. The company has been in a net cash position since mid-2004 and continues to pile up cash along with its strong operational cash flow, while capex remains minimal (Rp650bn). The management recently announced that it is going to increase its dividend payout ratio to 50%, from 20% last year, pending the shareholders’ approval, which in turns to provide less than 2% yield. We believe the company still has an upside to distribute higher dividend.

· Has not decided on Treasury shares. Kalbe Farma has 781 mn treasury shares (worth Rp2.8 tn). It has not decided whether to retire them or place them back to the market. Retiring the shares will increase the company’s EPS by around 8%, and should it sell them back to the market, the company will be able to book a gain of Rp2 tn.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 23.46

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