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Selasa, 03 Mei 2011

Buy BUMI, sell Indo telcos - JP Morgan

* Sales Call: add Bumi Resources (BUMI) – some 1Q11 disclosure by its parent company; substantial upgrade to consensus likely. KPC achieved an average selling price (ASP) per tonne in 1Q11 of US$92.8 (up 42% from US$65.4 one year ago), Arutmin achieved US$77.1 (up 32% from US$58.6 one year ago). In terms of production volume, KPC produced 8.2mn in 1Q11 (down 9% from 1Q10), Arutmin 6.0mn tonnes (down 0.5%). Guidance for full year 2011: KPC and Arutmin to produce 66mn tonnes, ASP to be higher than what achieved in year 2010.

My take – weighted average ASP for KPC and Arutmin came in at US$86.2, already higher that Stevanus Juanda (analyst) full year estimate of US$85. Steve’s full year EPS estimate for FY11 is in-line with consensus. There should be a (big) step up in ASP in 2Q11 (from 1Q11), as the new benchmark price settlement kicks-in. Bumi’s 1Q11 audited results, which should be released by end-May, should trigger upward revisions. Also, by the time the 1Q11 results are released, the company could have disclosed a more precise (and higher) guidance on ASP for full year 2011, after closing-in the price negotiation with Japanese buyers. Buy.

* Sales Call: sell Indo telcos – PT Telkom’s 1Q11 EPS missed James Sullivan’s estimate by 26% (recurring net income only grew by 2% yoy). On our last forecast, the stock trades on 11.4x FY11 P/E, but if Jim’s forecast were to be downgraded by 25%, it is really trading on 15x P/E, which is too expensive for a single digit grower. Sell. (Research call is O/W prior to 1Q11 results release).

Indosat’s 1Q11 revenue and EBITDA have also missed, falling short of Jim’s forecast by 3% and 11%. On Jim’s latest forecast, the stock trades on 19.6x FY11 recurring EPS, already expecting sharp earnings turnaround – which has not happened just yet. Sell. (Research call is O/W).

Excelcomindo has been a great performer, in terms of earnings delivery and share price. But as a result, market expectations have run well ahead of reality. Its 1Q11 EPS missed Jim’s estimate by 28.5%. If Jim were to downgrade his FY11 estimate by 25%, the stock is really trading on close to 20x FY11 earnings – sticking-out like a sore thumb on regional telco metric. Sell. (Research call downgraded from Neutral to U/W).

My take -- for defensive stance, prefer the telco tower company Tower Bersama (TBIG). PT Telkom's recently announced share buyback plan seems like a pre-cursor to a series of negative events.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 08.48

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