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Senin, 02 Mei 2011

HRUM:Augur well for future growth - Mandiri

HRUM’s 1Q11 results accounted for around 20% our estimates and consensus. It was inline considering its seasonal factors. Strong average selling price of US$88.4/ton was no doubt as a result of good deals the company obtained amid rising coal price towards end of 2010. The allocation of 80% of the last year net profit cash dividend payment amounting to Rp244/share shows good commitment to shareholders post IPO. In addition EMSOP phase I exercise price has been determined at 113% from IPO price or Rp5,900/share, exercisable within 3 years period starting on 3 December 2011. We have no doubt on the company’s expansion plan organically and inorganically as the company is in rich net cash position and has secured standby credit line of US$200mn. Construction of the fourth crushing plant is still on track with commissioning in May 2011. Reiterate Buy rating.

In-line results. HRUM reported 1Q11 revenue of Rp1,514bn ( +69.3% yoy, 14.1%qoq) followed by adjusted net profit of Rp367bn (+148.0% yoy, +25.3% qoq). Combined 1Q11 coal production from MSJ (1.6Mt) and SB (0.4Mt) reached 2Mt (+14.9.% yoy, -7.8% qoq) accounted for 19% of the FY11 target, considering the seasonal factors and TBH mine that is expected to start producing 0.5Mt in the 4Q11. Cash cost increased to US$43.2/ton (+11.7% yoy, +5.6%qoq) following higher fuel prices offset by higher selling price.

Stronger performance in the next quarters. We expect stronger performance in the next quarters on expectation of stronger ASP and production volume supported by drier season. On the quarterly basis, production growth was a bit curtailed especially in SB due to pre-stripping activities related to pits expansion. HRUM so far has not seen any significant adverse impact from disaster in Japan.

Good deal. Helped by good momentum in global coal price toward the end of 2010 as a result of the flood in Queensland, HRUM successfully secured a good deal, which resulted in 35.8% yoy or 7.5% qoq increase in 1Q11 ASP to US$88.4/ton, higher than other coal miner ITMG’s US$82-83/ton but close to Arutmin’s US$92.8/ton (HRUM’s GCV is ±15% lower than Arutmin’s and slightly the same with ITMG’s). We expect HRUM to surpass our FY11F ASP of US$90.5/ton this year.

Reiterate Buy, Maintain TP. We maintain our forecasts and TP at Rp11,000/share implying adjusted 15.3xPER11F. We still like HRUM on better pricing strategy that will boost its earnings growth amid bright coal price outlook. Furthermore, HRUM is also seriously targeting to close a good deal of coal asset acquisition this year to strengthen its mine life reserves that would augur well for its future growth.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 15.15

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