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Senin, 02 Mei 2011

Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ), solid performance - CLSA

Sarina maintains her BUY call on JSMR. This has been a good call. Her numbers are 12% above consensus this year. 1Q11 results stronger than expectation (1Q is seasonally lower - 24% of FY11CL and 26% of consensus). Traffic volume +11.2% YoY in 1Q11 as compared to usually low single digit (helped by new toll section).

JSMR is the beneficiary of combo - higher vols + tariff (automatic adjustment every 2 years), lower and cheaper debt, plus the reality that this is the only toll road play in Indo that still can expand. EBITDA margin at 64.3% looks very high but the regional peers have even higher margins. Still rooms for improvement for JSMR and they seem to be on their way to get there.

Valuation is slightly higher compared to the regional peers (14.4x 2011 PER vs. 13.7x for the regional peers) but JSMR offers higher growth.

Other key points from the report:
JSMR reported a strong 1Q11 with continuing margin expansion.
Net profit of Rp372bn was in line with our expectation, but slightly ahead of consensus.
Further upside to FY11 number coming from tariff increase in Sept for most of its toll roads and expected higher traffic in 2H.
JSMR remains a BUY, now trading at 14.4x PE11, not cheap compared to peers but delivering higher growth.
There is also upside to our numbers from new projects to be acquired by the company and the land bill. BUY.
The upcoming landbill will be the key catalyst.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 12.41

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