Good results: BMRI, CTRS, LSIP, SGRO, CPIN - CLSA

Mandiri (BMRI IJ) – good results
· Bank Mandiri released 1Q11 results and they came in at Rp3.8tn (+89% YoY) or 31% of our FY11 estimates. However, after adjusting for Garuda, the earnings were Rp2.7tn (+34% YoY) and 22% of our FY11 estimates.
· Loan growth of 25% YoY and NIM at 5.08%, deposits only up 11% YoY, we believe Mandiri needs to concentrate more on its deposit taking and CASA accounts (56%). The bank should see improvement as it invests further in the network over 2011.
· Gross NPL’s increased by 18bps QoQ to 2.6%, remain the lowest at large cap Indo banks ex BCA, coverage ratio is at 175%.
· We are maintaining our BUY recommendation and will likely maintain our FY11 estimates which stand 11% above the consensus.

Ciputra Surya (CTRS IJ) strong results
CTRS reported net profit 1Q11 of Rp29bn, which came at 28% of consensus full year expectation.
CTRS had a strong 1Q11 marketing sales which is 27% of FY target, up 139% YoY and 67% QoQ. This will translate into strong earnings next year.
We do not have coverage on CTRS but based on our NAV valuation, CTRS trades at 69% discount to NAV. CTRS also trades at an attractive 9x PE11Cons and 8x PE12Cons.

London Sumatera (LSIP IJ) – good performance
Revenue grew 73% YoY making up 27% of CL11 and 28% of consensus forecast.
CPO sales volume of 95.7k tons exceeded 1Q11 production of 88k tons by 9% as LSIP sold from inventory. Total CPO production made up 23% of our FY11 production forecast.
Operating, EBT, and net profit margins expanded YoY and QoQ.

Sampoerna Agro (SGRO IJ) – good performance
SGRO’s 1Q11 results significantly overshot expectations.
Revenue grew 151% YoY primarily from +139% CPO and +296% PK sales YoY. 1Q11 revenue made up 27% of our FY11 forecast and 29% of consensus forecast.
Gross, operating and net profit margins all expanded YoY and QoQ.
Operating and net profit made up 36-37% of our FY forecast, and 38% of consensus estimates.

CP Indo (CPIN IJ) – strong - net profit makes up 37% of our FY number.
We proved to be too conservative on our gross margin assumption this year. 1Q11 gross profit make up 31% of our FY assumption whereas in the past, 1Q gross profit usually make up less than 20% of the FY number. We assumed 18% gross margin for FY2011 versus 23% gross margin achieved in 1Q11. Operating profit and bottom line grew nearing 50% YoY, both making up 37% of our FY forecasts.
Likely to revise up earnings. We will likely revise up our earnings forecast given stronger than expected 1Q11 numbers, but not extensively. Annualizing 1Q11 profit suggests 50% upward revision to our bottom line forecast.