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Jumat, 08 April 2011

PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk Beating The Street - AAA

BBRI’s performance has surprised everyone. However, to secure its CAR, it most likely will pay lower dividend which is around 19% in our estimate, translating into 1.7% dividend yield. Althogh this may make the stock less attractive, BBRI’s highest ROE, declining NPL, and strong market foothold in micro lending, imply strong bottom line growth going forward.

± Knocked Out The Street
BBRI is on fire, its net profit rose to the highest level of Indonesia banking history, to Rp11.4 trillion and technically knocked out (TKO) ours and consensus estimate by far. We use word of “technical” due to major reason behind the earning surprise, which was from the implementation of new accounting standard (PSAK 50&55) in which interest income was calculated based on its effective interest rate not on flat rate. And since micro and consumer loan contributes 51.4% of total BBRI’s loan portfolio and both are using flat rate, shifting to effective interest did make huge difference in interest income. The latter rose 25% yoy to Rp43.9 trillion while interest expense trimmed down 6% yoy to Rp11.4 trillion due to higher influx of low cost funding, lifting net interest income by 42% yoy to Rp32.5 trillion.

± NPL Also Comes Lower
Looking at detail, new NPL formation flowing in the bank’s balance sheet also descended to only 1.9% which is a signal that percentage of loan that will be written-off (W/O) will be about the same rate, that is 1.9% in the next year. Historically, percentage of W/O loan was on average close to its new NPL formation in the prior year. Meanwhile by 2010 and beyond, recovery will be posted directly to fee based income. In 2011, we expect more conservative recovery at 0.2% of the total loan or Rp677 billion. Any higher percentage could be the earning surprise factor that could lead to higher ROE in 2011.

± Micro Loan Booked 40% yoy Growth in 2010
In 2011, BBRI is eyeing 22% loan growth which will be driven by micro loan. This will lift up its micro portion to 32% in 2011 as opposed to 30% in 2010. Supported by its extension arm, Teras BRI which has better price competitiveness as it offers lower loan rate maximum at 24% p.a. vs DSP 30% p.a. What could be more enticing is also on BBRI rate scheme where bigger loan amount, lower the loan rate. How about the playing field? At present, there are 96.2 million people working in the MSME sector or 99% of total employment in Indonesia with 55% contribution to the Indonesian GDP. BBRI with its biggest market share on micro loan (19%) and its long respected history has the most potential to win the race in micro lending.

± Upgrade TP to Rp7,400 – Reiterate BUY
We upgrade our TP from Rp6,500 to Rp7,400, implying 3.8x PBV FY11F. Currently the stock is traded at 3.2x PBV, slightly higher than peers at 3.1x but peers only has ROE at 24% vs BBRI at 32%. BUY.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 14.31

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