Economy: Inflation slowed in Mar11, BI rate is likely to stay unchanged - Mandiri

Consumer price declined 0.32% mom in Mar11 or increase 6.65% yoy, on lower food prices and the local currency's appreciation, deeper than what we and consensus have expected of 0.07% mom and 0.02% deflation respectively. Yet, core inflation continued to increase to 4.45% yoy in Mar11 vs. 4.36% yoy in the previous month.

At this juncture, we still maintain our YE11 inflation forecast of 6.6% yoy in 2011, however, with a downward risk, given the government’s decision to delay fuel consumption rationing, which we have factored in. However, uncertainty in weather pattern and volatility in global commodity prices, particularly energy costs, have led us to hold on to our baseline forecast for the time being.

Contained inflation in Mar11 and continued appreciation in the rupiah, with the dollar has slid below to below Rp8,700/US$, we believe will increase the central bank’s confidence to hold the rate unchanged at 6.75% in the next board meeting scheduled on April 12. However, we still maintain our view that benchmark rate will be increased one more time this year to 7%, as pressure on core inflation will continue toward end of year. We penciled in the last round rate hike at the end of 2Q11, with possibility for being pushed back to the 2H11.

Feb11 trade data was also released today and it denotes to faster export growth from the previous month. The figures confirmed our view that the rupiah's appreciation (1.9% year-to-Feb) to the current level may have limited impact on Indonesia’s exports, since in they are dominated by raw commodities. Despite the fewer working days in Feb11, exports grew by 28.9% yoy (US$14.4bn), while imports growth slowed to 26.3% (US$12.0bn). Thus trade surplus rose to US$2.4bn in Feb11 from US$2.0bn in the previous month. We maintain our view that Indonesia exports will benefit from rising commodity prices, thus deterioration in trade balance will be gradual.