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Senin, 04 April 2011

Latest Economics Research - UBS Indo

Economics

Indonesian Inflation and Trade: Beat consensus expectations

The inflation print for March announced Monday was -0.32% m-o-m in March, which brought year on year headline down to 6.65% against our forecast of just over 7%. This number is also significantly lower than consensus. Rice and chili were key contributors to the fall, while core inflation (which excludes food) rose.

The February trade surplus rose to USD 2.4 bn from USD 2.0 bn previously.

Sales comment: Watch for surging oil prices, which have the potential to derail the very positive trend in both inflation and trade numbers.


Economics: Asian Inflation and the Last Rumble

Economist Duncan Wooldridge points out that inflation has accelerated in Asia since 2009. He argues that Asia is heading for a respite in inflation and that while the failure to normalize monetary policy in Asia will almost certainly produce higher trend inflation in the future, this does not mean that inflation will cease to rise and fall around that trend..

Duncan argues that more moderate growth and a drop in food prices will cause inflation to soften in the second half of the year.

Sales comment: Let us know if you’d like a copy.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 11.43

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