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Kamis, 07 April 2011

ADHI Escalating performance - Mandiri

Adhi Karya (ADHI) posted FY10 net profit of Rp189bn (+14.5%yoy, +116.4%qoq), which was above our and consensus estimates, thanks to higher gross margin. Since 86% (vs. 56% in FY09) of ADHI’s projects are government related, ADHI FY10 revenue declined by 26.4% due to lack of project won from tenders conducted by the government in 1H10. We expect FY11F new contract to reach Rp11.8tn (+45.6%yoy) more conservative than its expectation of Rp12.6tn (+55.6%yoy). We have a neutral recommendation on ADHI, which is traded at PER11F of 7.7x.

FY10 net profit was above our (108.7%) and consensus estimates (109.5%). While ADHI booked revenue of Rp5.7tn (-26.4%yoy, +115.3%qoq) due to delay on contract winning announcement on 1H10, net profit was Rp189bn (+14.5%yoy, +116.4%qoq) due to improvement on gross margin. Revenue in 4Q10 reached Rp2.6tn, translating into 45.9% of FY10 revenue. Gross margin increased from 8.5% in FY09 to 12.5% in FY10 due to escalation from government’s multiyear projects.

New contract in FY10 rose by 22.7%yoy to Rp8.1tn. Order book by end FY10 reached Rp13.5tn (-8.8%yoy) due to lower carried over contracts. While carried over contracts reached Rp5.4tn (-23.9%yoy), new contracts obtained in FY10 reached Rp8.1tn (+22.7%yoy) below the goal set in the beginning of 2010 of Rp9.8tn (+48.5%yoy).

ADHI reclassified its balance sheet for YE10 and YE09 books. Based on balance sheet by YE10, ADHI booked ARTO (accounts receivable turnover) of 1.8x, translating into 208 days of receivable days, higher than industry average of 160 days. We think it’s related to the government projects which need more time due to complicated procedures. Note that we excluded ADHI’s receivables from Al Habtoor’s stalled project on Doha, Qatar. By YE10, ADHI’s receivable from Al Habtoor has declined to Rp246bn from Rp312bn in FY09. We expect provision for bad debt expense in FY11F to reach Rp82bn vs. Rp96bn in FY10.

FY11F new contract is targeted up by 45.6%yoy. We are forecasting new contracts FY11F lower than the company’s expectations as we haven’t seen significant progress in government’s actions to solve the problems infrastructure development problems in Indonesia. ADHI is targeting new contracts in FY11F to reach Rp12.6tn (+55.6%yoy), at which 67% are government’s related projects. Meanwhile, we are forecasting new contracts of Rp11.8tn (+45.6%yoy) generating revenue of Rp8.3tn (+45.6%yoy). Furthermore, we expect net profit FY11F to reach Rp200bn (+5.8%yoy) given net margin at 2.4%.

Valuation. Historically, announcement of the results of the projects tendered by the government was executed on the second half of the year, and has possibility to be delayed into next year. We also are concerned on land acquisition issue, which becomes the main constraints in the infrastructure development. Based on our P/E multiplier valuation we arrived at TP of Rp950/shares, given PER11F of 8.3x, and maintain neutral recommendation on ADHI.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 22.57

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