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Sabtu, 12 Februari 2011

Protelindo (TOWR IJ) - CLSA

Peter Egbertsen (Corp Finance Director) Adam Gifari (Predient Director)
While attendance was on the slightly light side, investors and colleagues alike walked out of Protelindo's presentation impressed. They are the largest independent tower company in Indonesia and see themselves as best positioned to grow over the next 5 years. Players in the tower business in Indonesia since Q2 2007, Protelindo have a portfolio of over 4800 towers and boast EBITDA margins of over 80%. They have a strong business platform for escalating growth with long term (10 year) non cancellable, unrevocable contracts meaning predictable and stable cash flow - and plenty of it.
Seeing significant growth in wireless subscribers, significant growth in MOUs. But what is getting them excited is the "explosion" in data growth, which means a rapidly rising need for tower space
Competitors face high barriers to entry and having been in the business for a while they are reaping the benefits of having first mover advantage
Going forward the team are looking at maximizing colocations on existing towers and seeing new builds. Their currently have 300 sites for telkomsel, XL and HCPT and expectations are for more. They spoke breifly about growth by acquisition but refused flatly to get into detail about what they are looking at, one should take comfort that any M+A will be eps accretive
Balance sheet looks pretty healthy as cash generation allows them to de-lever very quickly. They may go as high as 5x net debt/EBITDA, but are targetting 2x. Any concern on interest rate hike cycle in Indonesia is not a problem for them as they only have 110m in rupiah exposure, the rest of their debt is in USD, half of which is floating, balance fixed
Caveat here is liquidity. The stock trades a measley 0.18m usd a day (if that) and for both new and existing investors- this is an issue, free float is at a measly 11%. They will overcome this Either through M+A, or consider coming back to the market. Having said that, this is by default probably the most defensive stock in Indonesia right now
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 06.00

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