Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Senin, 07 Februari 2011

Alam Sutera Realty (ASRI IJ, Rp245 BUY) Substantial upside - Danareksa Sekuritas

Maintain BUY, TP of Rp400
We remain a fan of ASRI and are OVERWEIGHT on the stock. Our optimism is supported by: 1) expected brisk earnings growth of 88% 3-year CAGR, driven by buoyant demand for more affordable housing in the Tangerang area, 2) total landbank of around 800Ha in Pasar Kemis where the company will undertake future projects 3) a healthy balance sheet and 4) a strong and professional management which has set its goal on achieving further growth. Our TP is unchanged at Rp400 and offers substantial 63% upside to the current share price, implying PER11-12F of 18.1-11.4x and PBV11-12F of 2.9-2.4x.

Strong FY10 indicative results and a bright 2011 outlook
ASRI has indicated a threefold increase in net profits to Rp 290bn in FY10, thanks largely to better margins on the back of higher selling prices.  This figure is above our expectations and also exceeds the consensus. Land prices have been rising very briskly indeed and in ASRI’s Serpong area they have risen to Rp 4.4mn/sqm (residential) and to Rp 6.6mn/sqm (commercial), up a staggering 30-50% YoY compared to the FY09 prices. As for marketing sales, they reached Rp 1.6trn in 2010, surpassing the company’s earlier target of Rp 1.2Trn. Some 63% of the sales were contributed by residential sales and the remaining 37% came from commercial and apartment sales.  Hence, on the back of strong FY10 pre-sales, we expect earnings to grow a brisk 63.5% to Rp 395bn in 2011F, yet still a conservative number compared to the company’s estimate of around Rp 500bn in net profits and net margin of 35%.

Additional 220Ha of landbank in Pasar Kemis
Through its subsidiary, ASRI has already added around 100 Ha to its 590Ha of landbank in Pasar Kemis. The acquisition cost was only around 30,000 to 150,000 per sqm. In addition, the company also acquired 65% ownership in another 120Ha of landbank in Kedaton, Pasar Kemis. The acquisition cost was around Rp 400,000/sqm, but the land is already developed. We have not yet incorporated this additional landbank into our calculations, although we estimate the additional landbank will increase the company’s NAV by 5% to Rp 604/share.

Acquired 7Ha of landbank in Bali
The land is located near Sanur beach in south east Bali. The total acquisition cost is around Rp 200bn or equivalent to Rp 2.85mn/sqm. Although initial plans are to build a condotel in the area, the local government recently announced that a new ruling would seek to limit the number of hotels or resorts in the southern part of Bali. Nonetheless, even if ASRI is unable to execute the project and decides to sell the land, the company still stands to realize a tidy profit since the selling price of land in that area can reach around Rp4mn per sqm and up to Rp 5mn per sqm for land offering sea views. Incorporating the book value of this landbank raises the company’s NAV by Rp11/share to the current NAV of Rp 576/share.


Able to weather higher interest rates
Higher interest rates are one of the key risks for interest rate sensitive sectors like the property sector. Nonetheless, we are confident that ASRI can weather modest increases in interest rates given that: 1) the company’s target market is the middle income segment which, we believe, is more resilient to an economic downturn, and 2) only 30% of ASRI’s sales are to buyers who take on mortgages.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 12.55

Tidak ada komentar:

Posting Komentar

Langganan: Posting Komentar (Atom)